NWS Forecast Area Discussion - New England Area

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171911
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north of Southern New England tonight. A
cold front sweeps through late on Saturday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected tonight and Saturday. A few
thunderstorms may have damaging weather along with localized
heavy rainfall. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop
along a front south of New England, which may bring showers at
times along with cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday,
especially near the coast. High pressure returns Tuesday, but
another approaching front will bring the risk of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Dry and seasonable
weather follows Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds
into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
* Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the early
  part of the night.
* Potential for localized damaging winds and flash flooding
* Isolated short lived tornado possible this evening

Winds are turning from the south and southwest most places, but
lingering from the east and southeast in Northeast Mass. Dew
points have climbed back into the low to mid 70s. Very moist
airmass in now in place with PW values between 2 and 2.25
inches. There are small scale signs of favorable upper level
divergence/low level convergence in the forecast data, but a
better couplet is forecast to move overhead this evening/early
tonight. Stability parameters are favorable for convection. All
of this comes together during the first part of the night.

Thus a potential for showers/scattered tstms with strong wind
gusts. High moisture content will support downpours with
flooding potential. This last will be even more possible in
areas that have recently received a lot of rain.

With dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s, expect overnight
min temps within that similar range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front remains to our north/west at the start of
Saturday, then slides southeast through the day and evening.
With high moisture values ahead of the front, we expect
showers/scattered tstms during Saturday. Dynamics and
instability will still be favorable for downpours Saturday, with
conditions less favorable after the cold front moves through.

The cold front will be along or just off the South Coast
Saturday. Waves moving along the front will maintain lift over
part of all of Southern New England, with best chance for lift
over CT-RI-Southeast Mass. Moisture values diminish with cross
sections showing drier air working in at mid level. But PW
values remain around 1.5 inches along the coast, and with some
lift available that would allow for at least scattered showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Cooler Sun/Mon with showers at times, especially near the
  south coast
* Mainly dry Tue, then increasing risk of showers/thunderstorms Tue
  night/Wed
* Mainly dry and seasonable Thu into Fri

Not many changes in the 17/12Z guidance suite from this time
yesterday. Decent overall agreement with the synoptic pattern
through Tuesday. Then typical timing and amplitude differences start
to creep into the various solutions. The Canadian model is pretty
much on its own developing a mid level cutoff low over the OH Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday. All the other operational models
maintain an open longwave trough which moves over northern New
England towards next Friday. Will continue to favor a consensus
approach, with less weight being given to the 17/12Z Canadian.

Sunday into Monday...

Expecting a cold front to be just south of the southern New England
coast Sunday morning. A weak low pressure moving along this front
will maintain plenty of clouds and a chance for showers, especially
south of the MA Pike. The thunderstorm risk looks a bit less owing
to the increased cloud cover hindering destabilization. Will need to
monitor the location of this front, as a closer proximity to our
region would mean a greater risk for showers. Not expecting a total
washout Sunday into Sunday night. Showers should diminish Monday as
this low pressure wave moves offshore.

Low temperatures should be near normal, with below normal high
temperatures. Humidity will also be lower, with dew points mainly
in the 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

Mainly dry weather Tuesday with weak high pressure in place, but
temps remaining a bit below normal with easterly flow persisting.
Increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday, along with increasing humidity, as a low pressure moving
northeast through the Great Lakes sweeps both its warm and cold
fronts across our region towards Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday...

Expecting drier weather behind a cold front as a high pressure moves
overhead. Near normal low temperatures, with high temperatures
slightly below normal. Better chance for noticeably lower humidity,
with dew points possibly in the 50s across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence.

VFR conditions for part of the night. MVFR cigs/vsbys possible
in any showers/tstms. Brief strong wind gusts also possible in
any showers/tstms. IFR possible in developing fog/stratus,
especially along the South Coast where the southerly winds will
be moving onshore.

Saturday...Moderate to high confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions, but will see local MVFR-IFR in
showers/isolated thunderstorms with best chance from midday
through the afternoon as a cold front moves across.

Saturday night...Moderate confidence.

Developing winds from northeast behind the cold front.
CIGs/VSBYs will lower to MVFR, and possibly IFR in spots.
Scattered showers.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Winds turning from the
south and southwest this evening through Saturday, but less than
20 knots. Showers/isold t-storms approach during the evening
push with brief local MVFR-IFR conditions possible.
Showers/isold t-storms continue to be possible Saturday as well.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Showers/isold t-storms
approach during the evening push with brief local MVFR-IFR
conditions possible. Showers/isold t-storms continue to be
possible Saturday as well.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight and Saturday...S-SW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 3
feet or less. Scattered showers/t-storms, may see gusty winds
and heavy rain. Reduced visibility and locally choppy seas in
any showers or storms.

Saturday night...Winds turn from the northwest and north
Saturday evening as a cold front moves south across the waters.
Winds then turn from northeast after midnight. Winds less than
25 knots and seas less than 5 feet. Continued chance of
showers/tstms, with best chance on the southern waters.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, patchy fog.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk/Correia
NEAR TERM...WTB/Correia
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion