Tropical Outlook From National Hurricane Center

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 151739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located about 200 miles north of the northwestern
Bahamas.

A small low pressure system is producing an elongated area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic. Slow development is anticipated during the next day or
two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... ...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Humberto was located near 28.9, -77.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Humberto Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue into tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is
forecast to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move
away from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the east coast of
Florida through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast through
Wednesday, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas.  These winds should subside later today.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the central and
northern Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.

Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

000
WTNT24 KNHC 151452
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  77.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  77.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  77.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N  77.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.0N  77.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N  75.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N  74.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N  69.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 34.5N  62.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 39.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N  77.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

000
WTNT44 KNHC 151454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that
Humberto's inner-core region has improved markedly since early this
morning, including the development of a small but ragged mid-level
eye. In addition, significant dry air entrainment that has been
plaguing the cyclone since its formation appears to have abated
based on the recent development of deep convection in the dry slot
located in the southern semicircle of Humberto's circulation.
Anticyclonic outflow has also been increasing in all quadrants,
along with a hint of cloud-filled eye in recent visible imagery.
Buoy 41010 located just west of the center recently reported a
pressure of 1001.8 mb and 41-kt winds at 4-meters elevation. The
initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on a Dvorak
intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB. AN Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will reconnoiter Humberto this afternoon,
providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 350/06 kt, based mainly on microwave
satellite fix positions. NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on Humberto moving slowly northward through a break in the
subtropical ridge today and tonight, then making a sharp turn toward
the northeast on Monday when the cyclone passes north of the narrow
east-west oriented ridge axis. On days 2-5, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to gradually accelerate toward the northeast and
east-northeast under the influence of increasing westerlies ahead of
a deepening mid-latitude trough forecast to dig southeastward out of
Canada and into the extreme northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The new
official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed consensus
track models.

Humberto now appears to be well on its way to becoming a hurricane
fairly soon based on the newly formed central dense overcast and
mid-level eye feature. Although the large-scale shear is fairly
large in the SHIPS intensity models, the shear directly over the
center of Humberto is forecast to remain low for the next 48 hours
or so, which should allow for steady strengthening. By 72 hours, the
cyclone is forecast to be situated in the right-rear quadrant of a
strong, anticyclonically curved jet maximum. The associated
upper-level divergence is expected to induce strong pressure falls
and strengthening despite the vertical shear increasing to more than
30 kt. By 96 hours and beyond, slightly cooler waters, much drier
air, and very hostile shear conditions of more than 40 kt should
cause steady weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous advisory, but now shows Humberto reaching peak
intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest water
temperatures of about 29C and greatest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 28.9N  77.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 29.5N  77.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 30.0N  77.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 30.3N  75.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 30.7N  74.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 31.6N  69.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 34.5N  62.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 39.0N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 151452
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  3   2( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  70(83)   1(84)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  50(51)   1(52)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   1(28)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Humberto Graphics

Tropical Storm Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 14:55:25 GMT

Tropical Storm Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 15:24:51 GMT