Tropical Outlook From National Hurricane Center

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221710
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032019)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 the center of Three was located near 25.6, -78.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

000
WTNT33 KNHC 222031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 78.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 78.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).
A turn toward the north-northwest is expected overnight followed by
a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of the depression should
remain just offshore of the east coast of Florida over the next day
or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant increase in strength is anticipated, and the
depression is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019

000
WTNT23 KNHC 222030
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032019
2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  78.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  78.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  78.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.2N  79.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.7N  77.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N  78.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

000
WTNT43 KNHC 222032
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Deep convection has increased in association with the small low
pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas.  Animation
of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a
closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories
are being initiated on the system.  Conventional surface
observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that
the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The
system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening,
as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service
Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700
mb level.  The global models do not intensify the system, and only a
slight increase in strength appears likely.  In 36 to 48 hours, the
models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal
trough near the U.S. east coast.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt.  Over the
next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the
depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and
the southeastern United States until dissipation.  The official
track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that
were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted
fields.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 25.6N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 27.2N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 33.7N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019


000
FONT13 KNHC 222032
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032019               
2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Depression Three Graphics

Tropical Depression Three 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 20:33:30 GMT

Tropical Depression Three 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 21:24:22 GMT