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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202359
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation.  In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day.  Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.  The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds.  Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida.  Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure.  Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

  • There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
  • Eastern Pacific


    NHC Eastern North Pacific

    Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

     


    Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
    
    
    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 202324
    TWOEP 
    
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017
    
    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
    
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Kenneth, located a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
    southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
    
    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Landsea
    
    

    Hurricane for

    • Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
      ...KENNETH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AND IS NOW NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH...
       As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 20
       the center of Kenneth was located near 16.2, -128.4
       with movement W at 14 mph.
       The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
       with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
      

    Hurricane Kenneth

    • Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 10
    • Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 10
      Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017
      
      000
      WTPZ23 KNHC 202032
      TCMEP3
       
      HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
      NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
      2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017
       
      THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
       
      HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 128.4W AT 20/2100Z
      POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
       
      PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
       
      ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
      EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
      64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
      50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
      34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
      12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE  60SW 150NW.
      WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
      MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
       
      REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 128.4W AT 20/2100Z
      AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 127.9W
       
      FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.0N 129.9W
      MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
      64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
      50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
      34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
       
      FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W
      MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
      64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
      50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
      34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
       
      FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.4N 132.6W
      MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
      64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
      50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
      34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
       
      FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 133.4W
      MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
      50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
      34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
       
      FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 135.0W
      MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
      50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
      34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
       
      EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
      ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
       
      OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.0N 136.2W...POST-TROPICAL
      MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
       
      OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
      MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
       
      REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 128.4W
       
      NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
       
      $$
      FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
       
       
      
    • Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 10
      Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017
      
      000
      WTPZ43 KNHC 202033
      TCDEP3
      
      Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  10
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
      200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017
      
      Kenneth has been strengthening rapidly during the last several
      hours.  An eye has appeared in geostationary satellite images and
      deep convection has been increasing in intensity, especially to the
      east of the center.  The latest Dvorak classifications have
      increased, and an average of the intensity estimates from TAFB,
      SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin
      support raising the initial wind speed to 80 kt.
      
      The hurricane is still not gaining much latitude, and the initial
      motion is 280/11 kt, which is a little slower than before.  The
      track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier.  A decrease in
      forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected on Monday as
      the hurricane moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.
      After that time, Kenneth is expected to move north-northwestward
      and slow down even more as it moves into a break in the ridge caused
      by a cut off low near the California coast.  The track models have
      shifted a little to the east beyond 48 hours, and the NHC forecast
      has been nudged in that direction.
      
      Kenneth has already intensified more than expected, and it still
      has about another 24 hours in favorable environmental conditions.
      Therefore, additional strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC
      intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short
      term, in best agreement with the HCCA model.  Beyond 24 hours,
      Kenneth is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 deg C and
      into a progressively drier and more stable air mass.  These
      unfavorable conditions combined with an increase in southerly shear
      beginning in about 72 hours should cause a steady weakening trend.
      Kenneth is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4,
      when it will be over SSTs near 23 deg C and in wind shear conditions
      of nearly 30 kt.
      
      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
      
      INIT  20/2100Z 16.2N 128.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
       12H  21/0600Z 17.0N 129.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
       24H  21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
       36H  22/0600Z 19.4N 132.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
       48H  22/1800Z 21.0N 133.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
       72H  23/1800Z 24.5N 135.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
       96H  24/1800Z 27.0N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
      120H  25/1800Z 28.7N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
      
      $$
      Forecaster Cangialosi
      
      
    • Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
      Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017
      
      000
      FOPZ13 KNHC 202033
      PWSEP3
                                                                          
      HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10               
      NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
      2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017                                            
                                                                          
      AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
      16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
      80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                          
      Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
         PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
         HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                          
      WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                          
      CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
         ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
         ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
         ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
      FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                          
      PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
          OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
              AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
         (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
              18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                          
      PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
      X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
      PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
      THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
      PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
      64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                          
                                                                          
        - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                          
                     FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
        TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
      PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                          
      FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
      - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
      LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                          
      15N 130W       34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
       
      20N 130W       34  2  12(14)  10(24)   3(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
      20N 130W       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
       
      25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
       
      15N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
       
      20N 135W       34  X   2( 2)  14(16)  23(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)
      20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
      20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
       
      25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  41(45)  10(55)   X(55)
      25N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   X(17)
      25N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
       
      30N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
       
      25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
       
      30N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
       
      $$                                                                  
      FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
      
    • Hurricane Kenneth Graphics

      Hurricane Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

      5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 20:38:57 GMT


      Hurricane Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

      Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 21:23:26 GMT