Tropical Outlook From National Hurricane Center

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea (AT1/AL012019)

...ANDREA IS A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue May 21 the center of Andrea was located near 30.8, -68.3 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

000
WTNT31 KNHC 212033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

...ANDREA IS A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 68.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.  Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 68.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph
(13 km/h) and a turn toward the east is expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to dissipate by Wednesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

000
WTNT21 KNHC 212032
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019
2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  68.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  68.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  68.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N  67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.7N  62.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  68.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

000
WTNT41 KNHC 212033
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

The cyclone has lacked deep convection since early this morning,
and therefore it no longer qualifies as either a tropical or a
subtropical cyclone.  Dry mid-level air, the influence of an
upper-level low, and marginal SSTs should preclude re-development.
The cyclone is likely to dissipate in a day or so as it becomes
absorbed into a frontal zone.

Post-tropical Andrea has turned to the east-northeast and the
motion is about 070/7.  The system should move mainly eastward
within the mid-level westerlies until dissipation.

This is the last advisory on Andrea.  Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 30.8N  68.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/0600Z 31.2N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1800Z 31.7N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 212033
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019               
2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 20:34:52 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 20:34:53 GMT