Woburn Weather Center  82.3°F

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
326 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

SYNOPSIS
Cloud cover increases tonight, with a risk for showers and
thunderstorms overnight to early Tuesday morning. Tuesday is
very warm and humid with heat indices in the mid 90s. Another
period of showers and storms redevelops Tuesday afternoon, some
with torrential downpours, before clearing out for Tuesday
night. Very warm Wednesday and Thursday then drying out with
more seasonable temperatures heading toward the 4th of July. An
upper level disturbance may bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday, otherwise dry through the end of the
week. Heat and humidity return later next weekend.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
315 PM Update:

Key Messages:

* Increasing cloudiness tonight, with fog and low clouds over
  southeast New England. Turning more humid too.

* Overnight to early Tue showers and embedded storms, timing
  approximately 3-9 AM. Although severe weather isn`t expected,
  storms could be capable of downpours and lightning which could
  impact the Tue AM commute.

Details:

Overall not too bad a day as we close out the month of June with
weak high pressure in control. At least through the early part of
the overnight, the vast majority of Southern New England should end
up being dry albeit with increased cloud cover. RI and southeast MA
will start to see fog and low clouds/stratus return northward
starting by early evening.

Forecast then starts to change during the latter half of the
overnight into the early Tue morning period. A warm front associated
with a very humid and conditionally-unstable airmass to its south
will be moving ENE approx. during the 3-10 AM timeframe. In tandem
with this warm front, active convective activity currently taking
place over the mid-Atlantic to parts of the OH Valley should begin
to approach our western MA/CT areas closer to 3-4 AM, which then
generally moves ENE towards the eastern coast around early Tue AM.
In a weakly-forced setting like this one as is customary, high-res
model guidance still remains frankly scattershot as far as where and
when the best risk for thunderstorms could lie in the overnight.
Some risk for storms could exist virtually anywhere, but think the
better shot for storms is mostly south of the Mass Pike. Severe
weather is not expected from this activity with weak windfields and
still pretty stable low-levels, but could still produce lightning
and heavy downpours, which could coincide with Tuesday morning
commute periods. While this activity should be coming to an end
toward daybreak in western MA/CT, it may still be ongoing for
eastern MA, RI and the Cape and Islands. Turns quite muggy tonight
with lows upper 60s to lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM Update:

Key Messages:

* Early-day showers/embedded storms end by mid-morning, with dry
  weather thru midafternoon.

* Thunderstorms likely re-develop Tue late afternoon to early
  evening, soonest interior (after 3 PM) which then conglomerate
  and move southeast by sundown and offshore early Tue night.
  Main risk is from torrential downpours capable of urban and
  street flooding, with possible flash flooding where storms re-
  develop. More limited localized wind damage threat possible
  but secondary to the heavy downpours threat.

* Very warm and humid, feeling like the mid 90s Tue aftn.

Details:

Quite a bit of moving parts for Tuesday, due in part to the early-
day shower/thunderstorm risk and the recovery/destabilization
potential in the wake of this activity. This leads to a still lower
than average forecast confidence as it pertains to the timing of re-
developing showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening, as well as to how warm temperatures and heat indices may
get.

We think leftover cloud cover from morning activity begins to
scatter out closer to noontime. So after the early morning
shower/storm activity ends, we should see a period of relatively dry
weather. How long that dry period holds on for is still a question
mark, but we think there should be some subsidence and relatively
drier period thru at least 3 PM. The risk for showers and
thunderstorms then increases more substantially around/after then as
a cool front interacts with a heated and humid airmass. starting in
interior Southern New England, then lurching southeast towards the I-
95 corridor around sundown, and then move towards the southern
coastal waters early Tue evening. Regarding thundestorm parameters
for Tue, lapse rates in mid-levels are barely moist-adiabatic if
that, and wind fields in the lowest few km of atmosphere are quite
weak. However precipitable water values are sizable at over 2", warm
cloud depths around 12,000 ft with CAPEs around 1500-2000 J/kg but
is of a tall-skinny type of profile. But I think the greatest risk,
given the above, in any thunderstorms which develop is from
instances of street and flash flooding. This is especially the case
where storms can re-develop over the same areas with the synoptic
pattern favors storms backbuilding and re-developing. And it could
potentially be a problem for the Tuesday afternoon/evening
commuters. A more limited risk for severe weather in the form of
water-loaded outflows/wind damage could develop but think this is a
more secondary risk than to the lightning and heavy downpours
threat. Included enhanced wording for heavy downpours and gusty
winds in the forecast, but of the two, I think heavy
downpours/instances of street flooding would be the main risk.
Activity should begin to move offshore by late Tue evening before
most if not all areas trend dry by early Wed.

Tue should end up being very warm to hot and also quite humid, which
will bring elevated heat indices. Tempering that to an extent will
be some degree of cloud cover. High temps in the mid to upper 80s
and dewpoints in the mid 70s would favor it feeling closer to the
mid 90s. This doesn`t meet the threshold for heat advisory
criteria but it still will be quite warm and humid nonetheless.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Very warm Wed-Thu. Scattered showers and t-storms possible Thu

* Drying out with more seasonable temperatures and less humidity for
  the 4th of July

* Heat and humidity return Sun-Mon

Details...

Weak trough/cold front appears to get hung up in the coastal plain
Wed with elevated PWAT axis near 2 inches near the south coast,
before drier air pushes southward across the region during the
afternoon. Can`t rule out a few lingering showers near the south
coast Wed morning within the moisture plume, otherwise dry and very
warm conditions with highs well into the 80s. 70+ dewpoints linger
near the south coast but less humid airmass will begin to move south
across the region during the afternoon.

Upper trough amplifies over the NE Thu-Fri as upper low digs
southward through Quebec and into northern New Eng Fri. Increasing
forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will lead to chance of
showers/t-storms Thu afternoon, especially interior. Given
increasing mid level wind field and favorable mid level lapse rates
approaching 6.5 C/km, we think there will be a conditional severe wx
threat if there is enough moisture/instability. The magnitude of
instability is uncertain and SREF probs are rather meager with
CAPES. Instability will be the key for Thu, but CSU and NCAR ML
guidance is indicating some risk for severe. Very warm temps are
expected Thu but dewpoints may mix out and fall through the 50s
which would be a inhibiting factor. Stay tuned. Then cold front is
expected to move offshore by Fri with NW flow bringing less humid
airmass and more seasonable temps for the 4th of July.

Looking ahead to next weekend into early next week, upper trough
exits followed by rising heights and ridging building back into the
region. This will result in increasing heat and humidity, especially
by Sun and Mon.


.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through 00z Tuesday: High confidence.

VFR, with SE winds around 5-10 kt. IFR-LIFR stratus/fog may
begin to develop over the southern waters and could begin to
approach the Cape/ACK airports closer to 00z.

Tonight: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on timing.

Through 07z...VFR for most, although IFR-LIFR stratus and fog
advances northward from the southern waters toward PVD and the
Cape/ACK airports.

After 07z...Mainly MVFR to southeast New England LIFR
stratus/fog, as overnight SHRA/possible embedded TSRA moves in
from eastern/southern NY. TS possible anywhere but somewhat
better chance for the BDL/HFD- PVD/SE MA area. These storms
would not become strong were any to develop but could still pose
risk for lightning and brief IFR visby downpours.

Tuesday: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on timing.

Early-day SHRA/possible TS thru 14z then trends to VFR. Another
period of TS more likely late in the day (after 20z), but could
start as soon as 18z in interior Southern New England. Storms
could produce torrential downpours and brief gusty winds. SW
winds around 5-10 kt with occasional gusts.

Tuesday Night: High confidence.

SHRA/TS moves southeast towards the southern waters thru 02z,
with gradual improvement to VFR thereafter. Possible BR/FG south
coast until SHRA/TS clears the southern waters.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR thru 09z,
seabreezes end by 00z to southerly winds. Early-morning SHRA
from 09-14z Tue, outside chance at TS but better chance south
and west. VFR thereafter approx 14-22z with SW breezes but risk
for SHRA/TS returns by 22z (indicated with PROB30s).

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR thru 07z,
SHRA with embedded TS 09-12z Tue. VFR thereafter approx 13-19z
with S winds but risk for SHRA/TS returns by 19z (indicated with
PROB30s).

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Independence Day: VFR.

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence.

Dry weather with SE to S winds around 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft.
Main risk for mariners tonight is fog over the waters, and a
potential risk for thunderstorms early Tue AM.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Moderate confidence.

SCA remains valid for Tue as SW winds increase to around 25 kt,
with seas building to 4-6 ft. Early-morning showers and
thunderstorms possible, then dry weather for most of the
afternoon. The risk increases for showers and thunderstorms
again for late in the day into the mid Tuesday evening hours,
some could be capable of frequent lightning, heavy downpours and
locally rough seas.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Independence Day: Winds less than 25 kt.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ250-254>256.

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Loconto
MARINE...KJC/Loconto          

Zone Forecast Product for Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
104 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Forecast Synopsis
Cloud cover increases tonight, with a risk for showers and
thunderstorms overnight to early Tuesday morning. Tuesday is
very warm and humid with heat indices in the mid 90s. Another
period of showers and storms redevelops Tuesday afternoon, some
with torrential downpours, before clearing out for Tuesday
night. Very warm Wednesday and Thursday then drying out with
more seasonable temperatures heading toward the 4th of July. An
upper level disturbance may bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday, otherwise dry through the end of the
week. Heat and humidity return later next weekend.

Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the city of Cambridge
105 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny. Near steady temperature in the
mid 80s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Humid with lows around 70. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning,
then partly sunny with showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy
fog in the morning. Humid with highs in the upper 80s. Southwest
winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Humid with lows in the lower
70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the
evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Humid with highs in the upper 80s.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper
60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs around
80. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid
80s. Lows in the upper 60s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Hot with highs around 90.          

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
400 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

MAZALL-302100-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         PTSUNNY   77  61  57 E17       29.96F
BEVERLY        SUNNY     76  63  64 SE10      29.96F
LAWRENCE       SUNNY     86  64  47 SE7       29.96F
BEDFORD        SUNNY     88  64  44 S3        29.94F
NORWOOD        MOSUNNY   88  64  44 S8        29.94F
MARSHFIELD     SUNNY     79  64  61 SE10G16   29.96F
PLYMOUTH       SUNNY     83  64  52 SW12      29.96F
TAUNTON        MOSUNNY   82  66  58 SE9       29.96F
NEW BEDFORD    SUNNY     81  64  56 S8        29.97F


MAZALL-302100-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       SUNNY     77  64  65 S14       30.00S
HYANNIS        SUNNY     75  65  70 S9        29.98S
CHATHAM        SUNNY     72  62  71 SE8       30.01R
PROVINCETOWN   SUNNY     80  66  62 S13       29.98F
NANTUCKET      FOG       65  63  93 SE9       30.00F VSB 1/2
MARTHAS VNYRD  PTSUNNY   70  67  90 S7        29.99F


MAZALL-302100-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      NOT AVBL
FITCHBURG        N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG      29.95F
ORANGE         MOSUNNY   86  62  44 VRB7      29.96F
SPRINGFIELD    MOSUNNY   90  66  45 S8        29.91F HX  92
WESTFIELD      MOSUNNY   89  69  51 SE8       29.93F HX  93
NORTH ADAMS    MOSUNNY   87  59  38 S7        29.93F
PITTSFIELD     MOSUNNY   85  61  44 SW9       29.96F


RIZALL-302100-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     PTSUNNY   79  66  64 SE12      29.98S
NEWPORT        SUNNY     76  68  76 S9        29.99S
BLOCK ISLAND   MOSUNNY   73  69  87 S9        29.99S
SMITHFIELD     SUNNY     80  68  66 VRB3      29.99S
WESTERLY       PTSUNNY   71  67  87 S6        29.98F


CTZALL-302100-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   MOSUNNY   89  66  46 S9        29.94F HX  91
HARTFORD       MOSUNNY   90  64  42 SW7       29.93F HX  91
PLAINVILLE     PTCLDY    89  67  46 VRB3      29.93F HX  92
BRIDGEPORT     MOSUNNY   82  65  56 E12       29.95F
DANBURY        MOSUNNY   89  64  43 VRB7      29.96F HX  90
GROTON         SUNNY     75  72  88 SE6       29.97F
NEW HAVEN      MOSUNNY   87  67  51 SE7G18    29.96F HX  90
CHESTER        MOSUNNY   88  64  45 SE7       29.98F
MERIDEN        MOSUNNY   90  66  45 S6        29.94F HX  92
WILLIMANTIC    SUNNY     88  64  44 CALM      29.96F
OXFORD         MOSUNNY   87  72  60 SE10      29.99F HX  93


MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-302100-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    SUNNY     77  62  59 S8        29.96F
BANGOR ME      MOSUNNY   83  64  52 S10       29.93S
CONCORD NH     SUNNY     86  65  49 SE7       29.94F
MANCHESTER NH  MOSUNNY   87  62  43 SW8       29.93F
NASHUA NH      NOT AVBL
PORTSMOUTH NH  MOSUNNY   79  60  51 SE13      29.95F
JAFFREY NH     SUNNY     86  56  35 VRB6      29.99F
KEENE NH       SUNNY     87  59  38 SW5       29.94F
BURLINGTON VT  MOSUNNY   88  53  30 S10       29.88F
MT. WASHINGTON PTSUNNY   63  54  72 W13         N/A


NYZ052-076-302100-
EASTERN NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBANY         MOSUNNY   88  65  46 SE8       29.91F HX  90
NEW YORK CITY  MOSUNNY   91  63  39 S13       29.93F HX  92


ANZALL-302100-
MARINE OBSERVATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      1940   67 66  120/ 10/ 12 1015.0F
BUZZARDS BAY     1900          160/  9/  9 1016.0F
NANTUCKET SOUND  1940   66 70  190/ 10/ 12 1015.0S
MASS BAY-STELLWA 1830   68     130/ 10/ 10   N/A    1 7/8
ISLE OF SHOALS   1900   69     150/ 16/ 16 1014.4F
S OF BLOCK IS    1956      68                N/A           2/ 9


......................KEY.........................
  SKY/WX - SKY CONDITION/PRESENT WEATHER
  TMP    - TEMPERATURE IN FAHRENHEIT
  DWPT   - DEWPOINT IN FAHRENHEIT
  RH     - RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PERCENT
  WIND   - DIRECTION AND SPEED IN MPH
  PRES   - MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN INCHES OF HG
  WCI    - WIND CHILL INDEX
  VSB    - VISIBILITY IN MILES
  HX     - HEAT INDEX
  TC     - TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS
  VRB    - VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
  N/A    - NOT AVAILABLE          

RTPBOX

Most of Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
821 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

This is an automated product. These data are preliminary and have
not undergone final quality control by the National Centers for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Therefore, these data are subject
to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at
www.ncei.noaa.gov.

Values represent highs yesterday, lows over the last 12 hours and
precipitation over the last 24 hours.

.BR BOX  0630 ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ

                           Max        Min         24-Hour
ID         Location        Temp       Temp     Precipitation

Eastern Massachusetts...
 BED        Bedford         M    /     M    /    0.00
 BVY        Beverly        82    /    58    /    0.00
 BOS        Boston         77    /    67    /    0.00
 LWM       Lawrence        82    /    60    /    0.00
 EWB      New Bedford      91    /    58    /    0.00
 OWD        Norwood        90    /    57    /    0.00
 PYM       Plymouth        85    /    59    /    0.00
 GHG      Marshfield       73    /    63    /

Cape Cod and the Islands...
 CQX        Chatham        78    /    61    /    0.00
 HYA        Hyannis        82    /    59    /    0.00
 MVY   Marthas Vineyard    84    /    54    /    0.00
 ACK       Nantucket       78    /    56    /    0.00
 FMH       Falmouth        84    /    57    /
 PVC     Provincetown      76    /    59    /

Central and Western Massachusetts...
 FIT       Fitchburg       83    /    57    /    0.00
 ORE        Orange         83    /    55    /    0.00
 CEF      Springfield      86    /    58    /    0.00
 BAF       Westfield       87    /    59    /    0.00
 ORH       Worcester        M    /     M    /      M

Rhode Island...
 BID     Block Island      83    /    63    /
 SFZ      Smithfield       84    /    60    /
 UUU        Newport        86    /    61    /    0.00
 PVD      Providence       90    /    64    /    0.00
 WST       Westerly        83    /    62    /    0.00

Northern Connecticut...
 BDL   Hartford-Bradley    85    /    59    /    0.00
 HFD       Hartford        87    /    63    /    0.00
 IJD      Willimantic      85    /    60    /    0.00