Woburn Weather Center  50.4°F

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
732 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

SYNOPSIS

Increasing cloudiness with a period of light rain showers for
tonight, north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Warming up
for Wednesday, then near record high temperatures are expected
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Nothing more than a
few brief showers are expected with this cold frontal passage
early Friday and the rest of the day should still be mild and
breezy. Much cooler and seasonable temperatures return this
weekend with dry weather. Unseasonable warmth will build back
across the mid-Atlantic states early next week...but its
northward progression is uncertain and will depend on the
location of a backdoor cold front.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM Update...

* Brief band of showers crosses the region tonight especially
  north of the MA Turnpike...but rainfall amounts will be light

Previous forecast is on track. Approaching warm front was
allowing a band of showers to overspread the Berkshires early
this evening and this activity will work eastward over the next
few hours. Most locations will briefly see a period of light
rain showers...but the stronger forcing/deeper moisture is
focused north of the MA Turnpike. This is where the showers
will last a bit longer with greater coverage too. That being
said...rainfall amounts will be light as the prior forecast
discusses below.

The main questions for tonight revolve around QPF amounts related to
the warm front, as well as how quickly will temps start to rise in
the face of increasing SSW winds and warm advection. While any rain
will be beneficial in light of the active wildfire situation in
Southern New England, am not optimistic rain amounts will be any
more than a quarter-inch in any one area. For one, the better
forcing is more located into VT and NH. Also only seeing observed
rain amounts between a couple hundredths to a couple tenths of
an inch max with this band of rain. In light of that, I opted
toward the lower end of rain totals from a couple hundredths to
no more than two tenths of an inch, highest north and lowest (if
any?) south. Temps are tricky with the warm front. Could see
brief cooling due to wetbulbing as rain moves in leading to
early lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, then hovering to gradually
rise into the low to mid 50s.

Finally, Massachusetts DEP has requested issuance of an Air
Quality Alert for Western Essex County in MA through midnight
due to Fine Particulates.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

330 PM Update:

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Wed looks to be the first day of a spell of well above normal
temperatures for late October. Warm front will have passed well
offshore early in the day, which will usher in 925 mb temps of
around +15 to +17C on SW winds. BUFKIT soundings indicate that
vertical mixing could be fairly shallow, which could serve both as a
cap to how warm our temperatures can reach as well as lead to more
occasional southwesterly breezes up to 20 mph. There may also be a
pretty generous canopy of high clouds that could result in more
filtered sun. Ended up reducing dewpoints into the lower 50s vs the
higher 50s values, which brings relative humidities down into the 45
to 50 percent range. Highs on Wednesday should reach into the lower
to mid 70s with mixing to 925 mb and SW downsloped breezes. Fire
weather will continue to be a focus as well, see the Fire Weather
section for more details. It remains dry with partial cloudiness for
the evening hours, with a continued southwest wind which will keep
low temperatures up. Indicated forecast lows in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Key Points...

* Near record highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Thu
* Still quite mild Fri & breezy too with highs in the 70s
* Much cooler/seasonable temps briefly return this weekend
* Unseasonable warmth battles a backdoor cold front early next week
* Dry weather other than a few showers poss early Fri/early next week

Details...

Thursday...

The last day of October will feature near record high temperatures!
Upper level ridging off the mid-Atlantic coast will generate an
anomalous southwest flow of air across southern New England. Given
our overall prolonged stretch of dry weather and southwest
flow...would not be surprised if temperatures overachieved a bit.
850T on the order of +13C to +15C are quite impressive for this time
of year. Thinking with plenty of sunshine...highs should top off
near record levels in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Thursday night and Friday...

It will remain quite mild Thu night with southwest flow out ahead of
an approaching cold front. Given enough wind in the boundary
layer...thinking overnight low temps only bottom out in the upper
50s to the lower 60s. A cold front/shortwave will cross the region
very late Thu night into early Fri. The front is moisture
starved...so it may come through completely dry or perhaps with a
few brief light showers. Otherwise...plenty of sunshine should
develop Fri and although it will not be quite as warm as
Thursday...we still expect highs in the 70s as it will take sometime
for the cooler air to work in behind the front. We also do expect it
to be breezy on Thu with westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph with a
few gusts perhaps near 35 mph.

This Weekend...

Much cooler air finally works back into the region this weekend as
large high pressure builds behind the cold front. Highs will be
mainly in the 50s to near 60 with chilly overnight low
temps...especially Sat night as high pressure builds over the region
and provides an ideal night for radiational cooling. Many outlying
locations should bottom out well down into the 20s.

Early Next Week...

Upper level ridging builds back across the southeast and mid-
Atlantic states early next week. The result will be unseasonably
warm to perhaps record breaking temperatures building back into the
mid-Atlantic States. However...not sure how quickly/how much of this
anomalous warmth will advect into our region. There appears to be a
backdoor shallow cool front in the vicinity...that may eventually
retreat enough to allow this warm into southern New England by the
middle of next week. That being said...a lot of uncertainty in
specific temperatures at this time range but should certainly be
above normal by the middle of next week. We may also have a few
showers sometime early next week in the vicinity of this
boundary...but any rainfall amounts will likely be rather light and
probably short-lived.

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

A warm front brings lowering ceilings into the MVFR range (a low
prob of IFR), with approaching light SHRA from 00-10z Wed from
W to E. -SHRA will be more widespread and last a bit longer
near and north of I-90...but many locations will see at least a
brief period of light showers. SE to S winds around 10-15 kt
with gusts around 20 kt.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: High confidence.

Any lingering MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR from west to
east by lunchtime. SSW winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around
20 kt during the day, with gusts easing by early evening.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. A period of MVFR
conditions later tonight into early Wednesday along with a 1-3
hour period of showers.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. A period of MVFR
conditions is expected tonight along with a few hours of rain
showers.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday Night: High confidence.

Tonight:

Small Craft conditions develop tonight for most of our open
waters with a modest southerly LLJU. Winds increase with gusts
20-30 kts and waves 4-6 ft over the open waters.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Small craft conditions come to an end by the afternoon. SW
winds 15-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft, which become 4 ft or less for
the evening and overnight.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

.FIRE WEATHER...
The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in
continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. In
fact...our biggest concern may be Friday when westerly winds may
gust to between 25 and 30 mph with even a few gusts up to 35 mph! We
will continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state
partners.

.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 30th

BOS: 78F (1918)
ORH: 78F (1946)
PVD: 79F (1946)
BDL: 83F (1946)

Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st

BOS: 81F (1946)
ORH: 79F (1946)
PVD: 83F (1946)
BDL: 82F (1946)

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ006.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231>235-
     237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Loconto/Frank
MARINE...Loconto/Frank
FIRE WEATHER...Frank
CLIMATE...Dooley          

Zone Forecast Product for Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
702 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Forecast Synopsis
Increasing cloudiness with a period of light rain showers for
tonight, north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Warming up
for Wednesday, then near record high temperatures are expected
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Nothing more than a
few brief showers are expected with this cold frontal passage
early Friday and the rest of the day should still be mild and
breezy. Much cooler and seasonable temperatures return this
weekend with dry weather. Unseasonable warmth will build back
across the mid-Atlantic states early next week...but its
northward progression is uncertain and will depend on the
location of a backdoor cold front.

Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the city of Cambridge
702 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

.TONIGHT...Showers. Patchy fog after midnight. Not as cool. Near
steady temperature around 50. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the
morning. Not as cool with highs in the lower 70s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the morning. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Temperature falling
into the upper 60s in the afternoon.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs
in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs around 60.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s.          

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

MAZALL-300100-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         LGT RAIN  51  39  63 S10       30.50S
6HR MIN TEMP:  12; 6HR MAX TEMP:  56; 6HR PCP: TRACE;

BEVERLY        CLOUDY    51  38  60 S8        30.48F
LAWRENCE       CLOUDY    51  37  58 S6        30.50S
BEDFORD        CLOUDY    51  37  58 SE7       30.48S
NORWOOD        CLOUDY    52  38  58 SE3       30.49S
MARSHFIELD     CLOUDY    50  39  66 VRB5G12   30.49F
PLYMOUTH       MOCLDY    50  39  66 SE6       30.49F
TAUNTON        CLOUDY    52  39  61 SE3       30.49F
NEW BEDFORD    CLOUDY    53  40  61 SE13      30.49S


MAZALL-300100-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       CLEAR     52  39  62 SE12      30.52S
HYANNIS        MOCLDY    50  39  66 SE7       30.50S
CHATHAM        MOCLDY    52  36  54 SE8       30.53R
PROVINCETOWN   MOCLDY    50  40  68 S10       30.52F
NANTUCKET      CLOUDY    52  38  58 SE18G24   30.51S
MARTHAS VNYRD  CLOUDY    53  39  59 SE16G24   30.49F


MAZALL-300100-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      CLOUDY    50  39  66 S9        30.46S
6HR MIN TEMP:  50; 6HR MAX TEMP:  53;

FITCHBURG      CLOUDY    51  40  65 SE7       30.48R
ORANGE         CLOUDY    51  39  63 S8        30.46R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    53  40  61 S5        30.42S
WESTFIELD      CLOUDY    50  41  71 CALM      30.44S
NORTH ADAMS    CLOUDY    50  42  74 E14G22    30.41F
PITTSFIELD     LGT RAIN  49  43  80 SE12      30.39S


RIZALL-300100-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     CLOUDY    53  43  68 SE12      30.48F
6HR MIN TEMP:  52; 6HR MAX TEMP:  54;

NEWPORT        CLOUDY    55  41  59 SE15G23   30.48S
BLOCK ISLAND   CLOUDY    55  45  68 SE20        N/A
SMITHFIELD     CLOUDY    51  42  71 VRB6      30.48S
WESTERLY       CLOUDY    56  45  66 SE9G21    30.47S


CTZALL-300100-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   CLOUDY    56  43  61 SE8       30.44F
6HR MIN TEMP:  55; 6HR MAX TEMP:  59;

HARTFORD       CLOUDY    56  44  64 CALM      30.44F
PLAINVILLE     CLOUDY    55  47  74 SE5       30.43S
BRIDGEPORT     LGT RAIN  60  52  74 SE15      30.42S
DANBURY        LGT RAIN  56  54  93 SE5       30.42F
GROTON         CLOUDY    57  48  72 SE17G25   30.45S
NEW HAVEN      CLOUDY    62  53  72 SE9G20    30.43F
CHESTER          N/A     57  48  72 SE8       30.44F
MERIDEN        CLOUDY    57  46  66 CALM      30.44F
WILLIMANTIC    CLOUDY    53  43  68 SE5       30.46F
OXFORD         CLOUDY    55  50  83 SE8       30.43F


MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-300100-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    CLOUDY    50  41  71 S8        30.50S
6HR MIN TEMP:  49; 6HR MAX TEMP:  50;

BANGOR ME      CLOUDY    43  32  65 S7        30.53R
CONCORD NH     CLOUDY    47  35  63 CALM      30.47S
MANCHESTER NH  CLOUDY    51  36  56 S8        30.46S
NASHUA NH      CLOUDY    51  38  60 VRB6      30.50R
PORTSMOUTH NH  CLOUDY    52  38  58 S9        30.47F
JAFFREY NH     CLOUDY    47  38  71 S7        30.45R
KEENE NH       CLOUDY    46  37  71 CALM      30.44S
BURLINGTON VT  LGT RAIN  54  43  66 S17G28    30.31R
MT. WASHINGTON DRFTSNOW  30  30 100 W33G40      N/A  VSB 0   WCI  14


NYZ052-076-300100-
EASTERN NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBANY         LGT RAIN  52  48  86 SE8       30.35F
6HR MIN TEMP:  52; 6HR MAX TEMP:  57; 6HR PCP:  0.04;

NEW YORK CITY  CLOUDY    61  52  72 SE13      30.39S
6HR MIN TEMP:  60; 6HR MAX TEMP:  64;



ANZALL-300100-
MARINE OBSERVATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      2350   52 55  170/ 14/ 17 1033.0F
BUZZARDS BAY     2300   54     150/ 23/ 24 1032.5S
NANTUCKET SOUND  2350   54 58  150/ 17/ 21 1032.6R         2/ 4
MASS BAY-STELLWA 2204   52     180/ 17/ 21 1032.1F  1 7/8  4/ 5
ISLE OF SHOALS   2300   52     180/ 23/ 25 1032.1R
S OF BLOCK IS    2356      61                N/A           6/ 6


......................KEY.........................
  SKY/WX - SKY CONDITION/PRESENT WEATHER
  TMP    - TEMPERATURE IN FAHRENHEIT
  DWPT   - DEWPOINT IN FAHRENHEIT
  RH     - RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PERCENT
  WIND   - DIRECTION AND SPEED IN MPH
  PRES   - MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN INCHES OF HG
  WCI    - WIND CHILL INDEX
  VSB    - VISIBILITY IN MILES
  HX     - HEAT INDEX
  TC     - TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS
  VRB    - VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
  N/A    - NOT AVAILABLE          

Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for
Most of Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
820 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

This is an automated product. These data are preliminary and have not
undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center
(NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and
certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.


Values represent lows over the last 18 hours,
highs over the last 18 hours and precipitation over the
last 24 hours.

.BR BOX 1029 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ
                          Max       Min       24 Hour
ID    Location            Temp      Temp    Precipitation

Eastern Massachusetts...
BED   Bedford             55   /    26   /      T
BVY   Beverly             53   /    26   /    0.00
BOS   Boston              56   /    12   /      T
LWM   Lawrence            53   /    30   /    0.00
EWB   New Bedford         57   /    27   /    0.00
OWD   Norwood             57   /    26   /      T
PYM   Plymouth            56   /    29   /    0.00
GHG   Marshfield          54   /    28   /

Cape Cod and the Islands...
CQX   Chatham             55   /    35   /    0.00
HYA   Hyannis             53   /    28   /    0.00
MVY   Marthas Vineyard    55   /    25   /    0.00
ACK   Nantucket           55   /    35   /    0.00
FMH   Falmouth            54   /    28   /
PVC   Provincetown        54   /    27   /

Central and Western Massachusetts...
FIT   Fitchburg           53   /    31   /    0.00
ORE   Orange              52   /    34   /    0.00
CEF   Springfield         55   /    38   /    0.00
BAF   Westfield           52   /    36   /    0.00
ORH   Worcester           53   /    40   /    0.00

Rhode Island...
BID   Block Island        55   /    45   /
SFZ   Smithfield          55   /    31   /
UUU   Newport             56   /    39   /    0.00
PVD   Providence          54   /    32   /    0.00
WST   Westerly            57   /    41   /    0.00

Northern Connecticut...
BDL   Hartford-Bradley    59   /    39   /    0.00
HFD   Hartford            58   /    39   /    0.00
IJD   Willimantic         54   /    34   /      T