Woburn Weather Center  44.8°F

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
316 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be
possible at times for the second half of this week...but not
expecting a washout with the greatest risk for activity tonight
into early Thursday, and again around Friday and/or Saturday.
Temperatures to start next week turn cooler following the
passage of a cold front, and humidity decreases as drier air
moves in with it.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
300 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Increasing cloud cover towards overcast today.

* Mostly dry during the morning, but risk for showers increases
  late morning to mid afternoon from west to east. Washouts not
  expected.

* Still rather mild temps in the lower to mid 70s, but cooler
  along the coast and in western New England.

Details:

Although we are seeing some stratus work its way into western MA
and much of the Hartford/Springfield corridor, drier air in
place over Southern New England seems to be holding the area of
steadier light rains seen in composite radar imagery over the
lower Hudson Vly/SW CT area in place. Otherwise, the rest of
Southern New England is dealing with a considerable extent of
mostly mid to high clouds in a light SE flow. A majority of
guidance has been insistent on showing fog and stratus into
eastern and southeast MA and RI, and at least to this point in
the early overnight, that just hasn`t materialized as dewpoints
haven`t climbed as quickly as they suggest. There could be some
patchy fog thru daybreak in these locations, but think by and
large dry conditions should prevail. It`s been observed recently
that models have been overforecasting low clouds and fog much
too hard and think this is another one of those cases. Temps
range from the mid 40s to the lower to mid 50s with the milder
temps confined to western areas currently under
overcast/stratus.

Gradual deterioration in conditions expected today with
increasing cloudiness and a gradual north/east expansion of the
existing rain shield over SW CT. Recent trends have offered a
later onset timing of these light rain showers even into western
New England, and it may not really develop until late
morning/noontime for the vast majority of locations in western
MA/CT, and not until mid afternoon for most of central and
eastern MA and RI. Overall not looking like a washout today in
most areas. The later arrival of rain showers allowing for a
little longer period of sun in eastern MA away from the coast
should allow temps to rise into the mid 70s, but quite a bit
cooler near the coasts in the lower to mid 60s. In CT and
western MA, slow rises in temps due to overcast should keep
temps in the mid to upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
300 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Periods of showers, even a rumble or two of thunder tonight
  to early Thurs AM. Best chance interior SNE.

* Rather humid with more clouds than sun on Thurs, with hit-
  or-miss showers possible at times.

Details:

Tonight:

Approach of deamplifying shortwave trough energy over the OH
Valley will allow for an increased SSE low-level jet to develop
tonight as a warm front moves thru. This will transport
increasing precipitable water values/higher dewpoints along with
a burst of weak elevated instability rooted above near-sfc
stable layer (Showalter indices around 0 to -1, with CAPE values
ranging from 300-700 J/kg using a most-unstable parcel
approach). Expect showers to increase in coverage tonight in the
interior, then spread ENE into RI and eastern MA toward
daybreak. Given the weak elevated instability, included a
mention of isolated thunder but severe weather isn`t expected.
It would be more of the isolated lightning strike type of
mention. Rain amts could be up to a quarter- inch in some spots,
but most areas stay below that, with lesser rain totals as one
moves north. Should be a rather mild night and a touch humid
too, with temps in the mid to upper 50s, maybe staying near 60
out in the CT Valley.

Thursday:

Warm front then moves offshore early-morning on Thurs, putting
much of Southern New England in a cloudy warm-sector which is
also rather humid by mid-May standards (e.g. dewpoints in the
lower 60s). Wouldn`t rule out intermittent, slow-moving showers
in this warm sector, and although convective temps are pretty
low, there isn`t really much to hang on to as far as sources of
lift go. Given this I couldn`t show PoPs any higher than
slight/lower Chance. Thinking there will end up being several
hours of dry weather, but there will also be some showers to
dodge at times. How warm temps may get is contingent on breaks
in the cloudiness; I kept temps mainly in the 60s to low 70s
under mostly cloudy conditions but potential for quite a bit
warmer (well into the 70s) if we do get any sustained breaks in
cloud cover.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Unsettled conditions late this week into the start of the weekend,
  including a low risk for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday

* Temperatures decrease late in the weekend into early next week

Details...

Guidance continues to agree on the overall pattern late this week
into the weekend. Drier conditions return Thursday night ahead of
our next chance for showers and storms. A low moving across southern
Canada will continue to move east and will eject shortwave energy
eastward into the northeast US, which may assist in creating a more
favorable environment for some storms. The chance that some could
turn severe at this time still remains low, and what does develop is
more likely to be quite scattered versus being a widespread event.
Ensembles are continuing to hint at some elevated CAPE values Friday
into Saturday, with SREF probs for surface CAPE at 500 J/kg or
higher ranging from 70 to 90 percent across western and central MA.
Some lower probs Friday exist for MLCAPE values at or above 1000
J/kg across this same area, reaching up to 30 percent. The highest
chances for severe weather, though, still remain to our southwest.
This will continue to be monitored as we get closer to the weekend.

A cold front moves through Sunday which is expected to usher in a
drier airmass following the exit of the mid-level low. Winds shift
more to the NW and ridging begins to push into the region to start
next week. 925 mb temperatures cool from around +20C over Friday and
Saturday closer to +5C and +10C by Monday, continuing into Tuesday.
Highs Friday are expected to be in the upper 70s and even into the
low 80s for most, aside from the Cape and Islands where southerly
winds moving over the Atlantic will bring highs down to the low 70s
and upper 60s. Saturday and Sunday highs are expected to be similar;
primarily in the 70s. Once the cold front moves through, highs to
start the week may settle more into the mid to upper 60s.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Wednesday: Overall moderate confidence, but is
lower in eastern MA/RI.

Mainly MVFR (intervals VFR) for BAF/BDL but mainly dry as rain
shield in the lower Hudson Valley struggles to move north/east.
Confidence in ceilings/visbys is lower in eastern MA and RI
where VFR has hung on, despite vast majority of short-term
guidance offering IFR or lower in mist/fog/stratus. Risk for
sub- VFR could increase toward daybreak as moisture increases but
this is not set in stone. Maintained VFR for BOS/PVD/Cape
airports thru 12z but will AMD if we do see any stratus or fog
development. Winds light SE to E.

Today: Moderate confidence.

Should see a general continuation of conditions from overnight,
with MVFR stratus BAF/BDL gradually lowering to IFR levels, with
risk for light -SHRA as soon as 15z but more likely by aftn. VFR
more likely for eastern/central airports with deterioration to
MVFR ~18-22z along with increasing chances for -SHRA. SE winds
5-10 kt.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

MVFR-IFR, periods of SHRA with embedded TS. Best chance at TS
over CT/western and central MA airports but not likely worse
than isolated covg. Light SE to E winds.

Thursday: Moderate confidence.

MVFR-IFR likely to continue into Thurs, though SHRA coverage
turns more intermittent with several dry periods in between.
SE to S winds under 10 kt.

KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF. VFR should prevail thru
12z Wed, but a low chance at IFR mist/stratus could exist
09-12z Wed. VFR should continue thru 20z with better chances at
MVFR stratus and -SHRA develops. E/SE winds 5-8 kt.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. MVFR stratus but mainly dry
thru 14z, risk for SHRA then develops as soon as 15z but more
likely after 17z. IFR develops late afternoon to early evening
in SHRA, outside chance at TS after 02z.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Thursday...High Confidence.

Winds will remain below SCA criterion through the period.
However waves will be building to around 4-6 ft over the
southern offshore waters starting later today and into
Thursday. SCAs remain posted due to the building seas. Areas of
mist/fog and showers develop tonight and into early Thursday.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin          

Zone Forecast Product for Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
403 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Forecast Synopsis
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be
possible at times for the second half of this week...but not
expecting a washout with the greatest risk for activity tonight
into early Thursday, and again around Friday and/or Saturday.
Temperatures to start next week turn cooler following the
passage of a cold front, and humidity decreases as drier air
moves in with it.

Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the city of Cambridge
403 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance
of rain 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 50s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Highs
in the mid 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast
winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Not as cool with
highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain
30 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows
around 60. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Highs in the mid
70s. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of
showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s.
Lows in the lower 50s.          

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
400 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

MAZALL-140900-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         MOCLDY    50  47  89 E5        30.21F
BEVERLY        PTCLDY    46  46 100 CALM      30.21S
LAWRENCE       CLEAR     46  43  89 N5        30.23S
BEDFORD        CLEAR     45  44  97 CALM      30.20F
NORWOOD        PTCLDY    48  43  82 CALM      30.21S
MARSHFIELD     CLOUDY    46  45  93 CALM      30.20F
PLYMOUTH       MOCLDY    47  46  97 E3        30.19F
TAUNTON        MOCLDY    45  44  97 CALM      30.20S
NEW BEDFORD    MOCLDY    56  51  84 CALM      30.19S


MAZALL-140900-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       CLEAR     52  48  87 E6        30.21F
HYANNIS        MOCLDY    53  48  83 SE3       30.19F
CHATHAM        MOCLDY    52  48  86 E6        30.21F
PROVINCETOWN   PTCLDY    52  51  97 SE7       30.21F
NANTUCKET        N/A     52  48  86 E10       30.20S
MARTHAS VNYRD  CLOUDY    54  49  83 E6        30.20R


MAZALL-140900-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      MOCLDY    51  39  63 CALM      30.20S
FITCHBURG      PTCLDY    46  44  93 CALM      30.22R
ORANGE         CLOUDY    51  42  71 CALM      30.21S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    56  40  55 E5        30.16S
WESTFIELD      CLOUDY    58  40  51 NE3       30.18S
NORTH ADAMS    CLOUDY    60  48  64 E9        30.16F
PITTSFIELD     CLOUDY    57  49  74 E3        30.15F


RIZALL-140900-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     MOCLDY    53  49  86 CALM      30.20S
NEWPORT        CLOUDY    55  51  86 CALM      30.19S
BLOCK ISLAND   CLOUDY    53  52  96 E6        30.17F
SMITHFIELD     MOCLDY    47  47 100 CALM      30.20S
WESTERLY       CLOUDY    55  51  86 NE6       30.18F


CTZALL-140900-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   CLOUDY    57  44  62 NE5       30.18S
HARTFORD       CLOUDY    57  47  69 CALM      30.16F
PLAINVILLE     CLOUDY    59  51  75 CALM      30.16F
BRIDGEPORT     CLOUDY    56  56 100 E14       30.15F
DANBURY        CLOUDY    58  55  90 E7        30.15F
GROTON         CLOUDY    56  52  86 NE5       30.17F
NEW HAVEN      CLOUDY    59  55  87 E8        30.15F
CHESTER        CLOUDY    55  54  94 CALM      30.17F
MERIDEN        CLOUDY    60  54  80 CALM      30.16F
WILLIMANTIC    CLOUDY    52  47  83 N3        30.19F
OXFORD         CLOUDY    55  55 100 E6        30.16F


MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-140900-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    CLEAR     45  42  89 CALM      30.24F
BANGOR ME      PTCLDY    46  32  58 S6        30.22S
CONCORD NH     CLEAR     45  42  89 CALM      30.22S
MANCHESTER NH  CLEAR     47  43  86 CALM      30.20S
NASHUA NH      CLEAR     47  45  93 NW3       30.22S
PORTSMOUTH NH  PTCLDY    47  44  91 NE3       30.22R
JAFFREY NH     PTCLDY    45  42  89 CALM      30.20F
KEENE NH       NOT AVBL
BURLINGTON VT  PTCLDY    62  43  49 S6        30.13S
MT. WASHINGTON MOCLDY    45  36  70 W12         N/A


NYZ052-076-140900-
EASTERN NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBANY         CLOUDY    62  51  67 SE3       30.13F
NEW YORK CITY  CLOUDY    57  54  89 NE15      30.10F


ANZALL-140900-
MARINE OBSERVATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      0740   51 51  140/  6/  6 1023.1F
BUZZARDS BAY     0700          120/ 12/ 13 1022.4F
NANTUCKET SOUND  0740   54 57   90/  8/ 10 1021.9F
MASS BAY-STELLWA 0604   51     140/  6/  8 1022.6F  1 7/8  1/ 3
ISLE OF SHOALS   0700   50     180/  3/  4 1023.0F
S OF BLOCK IS    0756      53                N/A           2/ 4


......................KEY.........................
  SKY/WX - SKY CONDITION/PRESENT WEATHER
  TMP    - TEMPERATURE IN FAHRENHEIT
  DWPT   - DEWPOINT IN FAHRENHEIT
  RH     - RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PERCENT
  WIND   - DIRECTION AND SPEED IN MPH
  PRES   - MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN INCHES OF HG
  WCI    - WIND CHILL INDEX
  VSB    - VISIBILITY IN MILES
  HX     - HEAT INDEX
  TC     - TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS
  VRB    - VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
  N/A    - NOT AVAILABLE          

Currently Unavailable