Woburn Weather Center  60.0°F

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
138 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue through the
weekend. A weak low pressure system over the ocean could bring
some light rain to areas on Monday. It then turns much more
humid Tuesday through Thursday of next week, with daily chances
at showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures through the workweek
will be around or slightly above normal.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
9:30 PM Update:

No changes made to the forecast with this update. Temperatures
have dropped rapidly in the last hour or so with widespread 60s
being observed away from Urban centers. Temps will continue to
fall into the 50s and low 60s region wide.

715 PM Update:

No significant changes needed with this update.

Forecast looks to be holding up pretty well so far, with a
pleasant/tranquil evening ahead. Will mention that we`re now
seeing quite a bit of hazy skies associated with high-altitude
smoke well aloft stemming from the wildfires burning in west-
central Canada. This is seen really well in GOES True-Color
satellite imagery and recent CEF METAR remarks also indicate
smoke above 25,000 ft. Fortunately no adverse impacts from this
aside from a potentially more vibrant/redder sunset. 18z HRRR-
Smoke model indicates a potential repeat performance for
tomorrow under NNWly flow aloft. But again, no adverse impacts
are expected with modeled near surface smoke concentrations
being nil.

Aside from that, lighter northerly winds expected tonight with
dry weather prevailing. Lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with
low-mid 60s for the cities and Cape Cod/Islands.

Previous discussion:

quiet mid-summer weather across the region. Just some scattered
shallow daytime heating cumulus clouds. The slightly gusty
northwest winds are diminishing, and this is allowing the sea
breeze to develop across eastern coastal areas of Massachusetts.
Temperatures are seasonable, with lots of low to mid 80s. For
the rest of today, what you see is what you get. Get out and
enjoy -- unless you are a fan of cold and snow...and in that
case, it`s going to be awhile. Clouds quickly dissipate with
sunset so it`s setting up to be clear tonight. With afternoon
dewpoints in the 50s in most inland areas, that gives us a rough
idea of the potential lows temperatures. Given decent
radiational cooling expected, did lean toward the cooler of the
guidance and blended in the NBM 10th percentile data and the
MOS guidance. Could be a touch of fog in typical spots (like
parts of the CT River Valley) and around some lakes and ponds.
Not expecting anything widespread however.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
245 pm update...

Synoptically we are under a high pressure "big bubble no
trouble" pattern. For the most part, Saturday will look and feel
very similar to today. Expect daytime cumulus to develop as well
as sea breezes along the coast. With 850 mb temperatures running
in the 13-15C range, that would suggest temperatures here on the
ground should be in the 28-30C (low to mid 80s) range. Coolest
will be in the higher elevations as well as where we will see
the sea breezes along the immediate coast and Cape and Islands.
Saturday night should be a near repeat of tonight. Again trended
toward some of the cooler temperature guidance, and painted in
low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s -- though urban areas
should stay in the 60s. Could there be some more patchy fog
Saturday night? Sure, why not. But with a generally dry
atmosphere, not expecting it to be widespread.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 pm update...

Highlights:

* Dry Sunday with seasonably warm temperatures, though with
  increasing cloud cover.

* Upper low moving near or over Southern New England Sunday night
  into Monday brings cloud cover and light rain showers to the
  region.

* Turns much more humid Tuesday thru Thursday with daily chances for
  showers and thunderstorms, although won`t be raining the whole
  time. Temperatures around or slightly above normal, but nightime
  lows will be above normal.

Details:

Sunday into Monday:

Initial ridge of high pressure to be in place over Southern New
England on Sunday. However the main weather feature of interest is
an upper level low and surface reflection expected to be located
somewhere near or just south of 40N/70W on Sunday. This feature is
expected to meander NW later Sunday evening into Monday into
Southern New England or the lower Hudson Valley, as it merges/phases
with a slow-moving mid/upper level trough over the Gt Lakes region.
There remains considerable uncertainty in the initial placement of
the upper low and its exact track through the Northeast, and
analysis of 12z ensembles don`t offer much insight into a preferred
track. The ECMWF remains on the western end (more into northeast
NJ/lower Hudson Valley); the GFS and Canadian are somewhat similar
in low track over the eastern coast of Southern New England. While
the details are still quite hazy,

It looks as though Sunday and even into later-Sunday should be dry,
though the latter part of Sunday should feature increasing cloud
cover expanding northwestward associated with the upper low`s
landward approach. Thus for Sunday, we should be able to eke out one
final nice day before our weather pattern turns cloudier and more
unsettled. Dry weather with highs on Sunday in the 80s, on the upper
end of that range over interior CT/MA further removed from advancing
cloud cover, and in the lower 80s for southeast New England with
more of a canopy of cloud cover to temper heating to an extent. Will
be turning a touch more humid as well but excessive humidity isn`t
expected.

Increasing clouds and shower chances then develop soonest over the
Cape and Islands Sunday evening, then expanding northwestward into
the overnight and into Monday timeframe. Rain shower chances should
initially be favored for eastern/coastal areas, then gradually
expanding into the interior as we move into Monday. Precipitable
water values associated with this upper level low are not expected
to be climatologically anomalous, with values around an inch to inch
and a half; correspondingly, PWAT standardized anomalies are around
0 sigma. Thus not expecting any significant downpours from any rains
which develop, and it is not likely to be raining all of Monday
either. Sunday night`s lows should be a bit warmer than prior
nights, in the mid 60s, with highs on Monday in the upper 70s to mid
80s areawide due to cloud cover and rain chances.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Upper level low from late Sunday/Monday to either phase with or move
northward into northern New England early on Tue. However this
period features continued mostly cloudy and unsettled weather with
daily chances at showers and thunderstorms associated with the slow-
moving mid/upper trough over the Gt Lakes. There is a more favorable
southerly influx of deeper moisture in this period, with PWAT
standardized anomalies around 1 to 2 standard deviations above
normal (1.5-2 inch PWAT values). So this will lead to elevated
humidity levels (e.g. dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s), but
also support potential for downpours in showers or thunderstorms
which develop. Couldn`t rule out showers or t-storms anywhere in
this period of time, and it likely will not be raining the whole
time, but interior MA and CT stand a slightly better chance than
eastern MA/RI closer to the upper level feature. Couldn`t really
provide much specificity given uncertainties, so kept a rather broad
brush to PoPs close to NBM values for this period.

With still a good amt of cloud cover around, high temperatures
should run close to climatology or slightly above (highs mid 80s
Tue/Wed, into the mid to upper 80s on Thurs), with above normal low
temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue thru Thu nights. Heat indices
should remain below heat advisory criteria, although we could
have a few locations reach the mid to upper 90s for heat indices
late in the workweek.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Through Sunday: High Confidence

VFR with light WNW/NW winds across interior southern New
England. Climatological coastal sea breezes very likely between
15-16Z as winds shift more easterly. Winds become SE to SSW
after sunset this evening.

Low probability of marine stratus/fog over the Islands after 06Z
tonight. VFR returns early Sunday morning. Tracking low pressure
that will advect increasing clouds over the region Sunday but
anticipate conditions will remain VFR. Winds will shift to the
east as low pressure approaches, any may gust as high as 25kt
across the Cape and Islands by 00Z Monday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Climatological seabreeze
likely today between 15-16Z. Winds shift to the SE after 00Z
tonight.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR thru the period. Light
north/northwest winds. Winds shift more southerly after 00Z
Sunday.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday: Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

230 pm update...

Overall high confidence through the weekend.

Ridge of high pressure will be across the region through
Saturday night. Thus winds should be 15kt or less, and in fact
barely over 10kts in many areas. There will be local onshore sea
breezes on Saturday. With the light winds and no significant
swell energy coming into the region, wave heights will remain 3
feet or less.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Nash
NEAR TERM...Loconto/KS/Nash
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...KS
MARINE...Loconto/Nash          

Zone Forecast Product for Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
103 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Forecast Synopsis
Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue through the
weekend. A weak low pressure system over the ocean could bring
some light rain to areas on Monday. It then turns much more
humid Tuesday through Thursday of next week, with daily chances
at showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures through the workweek
will be around or slightly above normal.

Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the city of Cambridge
103 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.REST OF TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Northwest winds
around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds around
5 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Northeast winds around
5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast
winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a
30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the
upper 80s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 80s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 70s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Hot
with highs in the lower 90s.          

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2024

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

MAZALL-270700-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         PTCLDY    72  54  53 NW9       30.08S
6HR MIN TEMP:  72; 6HR MAX TEMP:  77;

BEVERLY        CLEAR     62  56  80 NW3       30.07S
LAWRENCE       CLEAR     63  56  78 CALM      30.10S
BEDFORD        CLEAR     58  54  86 CALM      30.08S
NORWOOD        CLEAR     59  57  93 CALM      30.09S
MARSHFIELD     CLOUDY    63  61  94 W3        30.07S
PLYMOUTH       PTCLDY    63  60  90 CALM      30.08R
TAUNTON        MOCLDY    61  57  87 CALM      30.08S
NEW BEDFORD    MOCLDY    67  58  72 CALM      30.08R


MAZALL-270700-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       CLEAR     64  64 100 CALM      30.09S
HYANNIS        CLEAR     62  61  96 CALM      30.06S
CHATHAM        CLEAR     65  62  90 CALM      30.08R
PROVINCETOWN   MOCLDY    66  62  87 NW3       30.08R
NANTUCKET      CLEAR     66  65  96 SW5         N/A
MARTHAS VNYRD  CLEAR     58  56  93 W3        30.08R


MAZALL-270700-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      CLEAR     65  51  60 NW6       30.13S
6HR MIN TEMP:  65; 6HR MAX TEMP:  73;

FITCHBURG      CLEAR     62  56  80 NW3       30.11S
ORANGE         CLEAR     58  56  93 CALM      30.14R
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     56  54  93 CALM      30.09R
WESTFIELD      PTCLDY    60  59  96 CALM      30.12R
NORTH ADAMS    CLEAR     56  55  97 CALM      30.16R
PITTSFIELD     CLEAR     56  54  93 CALM      30.15S


RIZALL-270700-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     CLEAR     65  57  75 W3        30.10R
6HR MIN TEMP:  65; 6HR MAX TEMP:  78;

NEWPORT        MOCLDY    66  57  72 N5        30.09R
BLOCK ISLAND   MOCLDY    66  60  81 NW5         N/A
SMITHFIELD     CLEAR     63  56  78 NW5       30.11S
WESTERLY       CLEAR     64  57  78 CALM      30.10R


CTZALL-270700-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   MOCLDY    66  59  78 CALM      30.11S
6HR MIN TEMP:  65; 6HR MAX TEMP:  78;

HARTFORD       MOCLDY    65  61  87 CALM      30.11R
PLAINVILLE     CLEAR     62  61  95 CALM      30.12S
BRIDGEPORT     CLEAR     68  58  70 N3        30.11R
DANBURY        CLEAR     60  57  89 SW3       30.14S
GROTON         CLEAR     66  57  72 N6        30.09S
NEW HAVEN      PTCLDY    67  61  81 N3        30.11S
CHESTER        CLEAR     66  57  72 CALM      30.12S
MERIDEN        CLEAR     60  56  86 CALM      30.12R
WILLIMANTIC    CLEAR     59  58  96 CALM      30.12S
OXFORD         CLEAR     59  57  93 CALM      30.15S


MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-270700-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    CLEAR     64  56  75 W5        30.07R
6HR MIN TEMP:  64; 6HR MAX TEMP:  76;

BANGOR ME      PTCLDY    62  57  83 W3        30.04R
CONCORD NH     CLEAR     57  56  96 CALM      30.10S
MANCHESTER NH  CLEAR     64  54  69 CALM      30.08S
NASHUA NH      CLEAR     62  59  90 CALM      30.10S
PORTSMOUTH NH  PTCLDY    64  58  80 CALM      30.06S
JAFFREY NH     CLEAR     56  53  90 CALM      30.14S
KEENE NH       CLEAR     55  55 100 CALM      30.13S
BURLINGTON VT  CLEAR     64  59  83 E3        30.10S
MT. WASHINGTON FOG       46  46 100 NW25        N/A  VSB 1/16


NYZ052-076-270700-
EASTERN NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBANY         CLEAR     66  55  67 W3        30.14R
6HR MIN TEMP:  63; 6HR MAX TEMP:  78;

NEW YORK CITY  MOCLDY    75  57  53 CALM      30.10S
6HR MIN TEMP:  75; 6HR MAX TEMP:  81;



ANZALL-270700-
MARINE OBSERVATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      0550   64 65  260/  4/  4 1018.6R         1/ 6
BUZZARDS BAY     0500   71     340/  4/  5 1018.6S
NANTUCKET SOUND  0550   73 75  270/  6/  8 1017.7S         0
MASS BAY-STELLWA 0404   64 62  270/  6/  6 1018.4R  1 7/8  1/ 6
ISLE OF SHOALS   0500   70     320/ 10/ 10 1017.5S
S OF BLOCK IS    0556      69                N/A           2/ 8


......................KEY.........................
  SKY/WX - SKY CONDITION/PRESENT WEATHER
  TMP    - TEMPERATURE IN FAHRENHEIT
  DWPT   - DEWPOINT IN FAHRENHEIT
  RH     - RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PERCENT
  WIND   - DIRECTION AND SPEED IN MPH
  PRES   - MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN INCHES OF HG
  WCI    - WIND CHILL INDEX
  VSB    - VISIBILITY IN MILES
  HX     - HEAT INDEX
  TC     - TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS
  VRB    - VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
  N/A    - NOT AVAILABLE          

Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for
Most of Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
820 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

This is an automated product. These data are preliminary and have not
undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center
(NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and
certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.


Values represent lows over the last 18 hours,
highs over the last 18 hours and precipitation over the
last 24 hours.

.BR BOX 0726 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ
                          Max       Min       24 Hour
ID    Location            Temp      Temp    Precipitation

Eastern Massachusetts...
BED   Bedford             86   /    58   /    0.00
BVY   Beverly             85   /    61   /    0.00
BOS   Boston              86   /    66   /    0.00
LWM   Lawrence            84   /    61   /    0.00
EWB   New Bedford         86   /    61   /    0.00
OWD   Norwood             88   /    56   /    0.00
PYM   Plymouth            86   /    60   /    0.00
GHG   Marshfield          81   /    59   /

Cape Cod and the Islands...
CQX   Chatham             81   /    66   /    0.00
HYA   Hyannis             79   /    63   /    0.00
MVY   Marthas Vineyard    80   /    63   /      T
ACK   Nantucket           78   /    63   /    0.00
FMH   Falmouth            81   /    61   /
PVC   Provincetown        80   /    63   /

Central and Western Massachusetts...
FIT   Fitchburg           85   /    60   /    0.00
ORE   Orange              83   /    57   /    0.00
CEF   Springfield         86   /    58   /    0.00
BAF   Westfield           85   /    63   /    0.00
ORH   Worcester           82   /    59   /    0.00

Rhode Island...
BID   Block Island        79   /    63   /
SFZ   Smithfield          83   /    59   /
UUU   Newport             83   /    63   /    0.00
PVD   Providence          84   /    61   /    0.00
WST   Westerly            85   /    64   /    0.00

Northern Connecticut...
BDL   Hartford-Bradley    87   /    64   /    0.00
HFD   Hartford            85   /    65   /    0.00
IJD   Willimantic         82   /    61   /    0.00