Woburn Weather Center  75.2°F

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1036 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control through tonight. A weak front
arrives Wednesday night and could bring a few showers. Cooler
conditions take hold Thursday and continue into early next week.
Dry conditions persist, although another cold front could
provide another chance for some showers Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 am update...

Quiet and dry conditions continue this morning under high
pressure. The main change with this update was to adjust the
temperatures a bit to bring them in line with observations, but
the forecast remains largely on track.

Previous Discussion...

Weak cold front was sliding through SNE early this morning and
is expected to dissipate near the South Coast later today,
allowing weak high pressure to build into New England. Certainly
not much of an airmass change behind front, but position of high
coupled with weak gradient will allow for E/NE flow (not a true
sea breeze but effects are the same) which will keep coastal
areas cooler than yesterday, mainly in low to mid 70s. Farther
inland, highs should reach mid to upper 70s with even some lower
80s in the CT Valley and possibly in Merrimack Valley and parts
of interior eastern MA. This is a little higher than blended
guidance which has underperformed in this pattern so we bumped
up highs a few degrees.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Dry pattern remains in place tonight and Wednesday as high
pressure gradually shifts offshore. This results in mild S/SW
flow, although we do think temperatures will be able to drop off
tonight away from coast given dry airmass in place, back into
50s although some of the usual cool spots could dip into upper
40s. Highs rebound into 70s Wed although highs should be closer
to 70 along South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands with prevailing
SW flow.

Some of the model guidance is suggesting we`ll see some lower
clouds form Wed morning, primarily in RI and SE MA where onshore
flow brings in somewhat higher moisture. Not seeing a lot of
evidence of that on model cross sections so we`ll lean more
toward a mostly sunny day, however that`s something we may need
to adjust in later forecasts if it becomes more likely. At very
least we may see some patchy fog overnight.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points...

* Dry weather continues for much of this portion of the forecast,
  outside of a low chance for rain late Wednesday night into early
  Thursday, as well as Saturday.

* Turning cooler Thursday into early next week, with near to below
  normal temperatures

Details...

Latest guidance suite was in rather good synoptic agreement, at
least until Thursday. While the approximate location of a mid level
trough is rather good, there are some amplitude differences, and how
that interacts with whatever is left of Oscar. NAM is the most
aggressive with brining showers across southern New England compared
to the majority of the suite. Given how dry it has been, and how
limited the moisture content is, favoring a drier forecast scenario
than the NAM solution. Other than some lingering showers Thursday
morning towards the east coast, and the possible showers Saturday,
dry weather should prevail across southern New England.

Expecting a pattern shift with a large high pressure moving south
from central Canada to the mid Atlantic coast. This will user in
more seasonable temperatures late this week. Another cold front
Saturday should send temperatures even lower heading into early
next week.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAFs: High confidence.

VFR. Light W/NW or calm winds become onshore near coast this
morning and E/SE 5kt inland before turning S/SW late tonight,
then increasing to 10-15kt with a few gusts to 20kt Wed.

We may see some lower-end VFR clouds try to form Wed morning,
mainly near South Coast due to moistening onshore flow, but chances
are low enough that we will keep mention out of TAFs.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the end of the week.

A weak front crossing the waters should dissipate over the south
coastal waters today as high pressure builds over New England.
Expect local sea breezes near coastline before S/SW flow gets
underway later today and continues Wed. Winds and seas will
remain below SCA.

Later in the week, we may see building seas offshore Thu into
the weekend as another stronger front moves through followed by
increasing NW winds, which could come close to SCA.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local
rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Higher relative humidities and lighter winds today should help
improve fire weather conditions. Forecasted minimum RH values range
between 40 to 55 percent across the interior and up to 60 percent
along the coasts; winds are not expected to be gusty or strong in
general.

For Wednesday, RH values should continue to be in the 40 to 55
percent range, but wind gusts up to 20 to 25 kts return. There
is a low chance of rain Wednesday night, but anything that could
fall will likely not be measurable.

.CLIMATE...
Here are the highs and records set for Monday, October 21:

BDL 86 - broke record of 82 in 1920.
BOS 83 - broke record of 82 in 1920.
PVD 81 - tied record from 1920.
ORH 79 - missed record of 80 in 1920.

Records for today (Tuesday, October 22) seem to be out of reach:

BDL 85 in 1979.
BOS 83 in 1979.
PVD 86 in 1979.
ORH 82 in 1979.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...Belk/JWD
NEAR TERM...BW/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
FIRE WEATHER...Belk
CLIMATE...Belk          

Zone Forecast Product for Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1004 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Forecast Synopsis
High pressure remains in control through tonight. A weak front
arrives Wednesday night and could bring a few showers. Cooler
conditions take hold Thursday and continue into early next week.
Dry conditions persist, although another cold front could
provide another chance for some showers Saturday.

Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the city of Cambridge
1004 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

.THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. East winds around
5 mph.
.TONIGHT...Clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Lows in the lower 50s. East winds around 5 mph, becoming south
after midnight.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
.THURSDAY...Sunny, cooler with highs in the lower 60s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Cooler with lows in the upper
30s.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs around 60.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s.          

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

MAZALL-221600-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         MOSUNNY   71  52  50 NE10      30.28R
BEVERLY        SUNNY     71  53  52 NE7       30.28S
LAWRENCE       SUNNY     72  53  51 E6        30.30S
BEDFORD        SUNNY     73  52  47 E8        30.27S
NORWOOD        SUNNY     76  52  43 NE6       30.28S
MARSHFIELD     SUNNY     66  52  59 VRB3      30.28R
PLYMOUTH       SUNNY     70  52  52 NE7       30.27S
TAUNTON        SUNNY     74  52  46 CALM      30.27S
NEW BEDFORD    SUNNY     75  52  44 NE3       30.26S


MAZALL-221600-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       SUNNY     72  54  53 CALM      30.28S
HYANNIS        SUNNY     70  55  59 CALM      30.26R
CHATHAM        SUNNY     72  51  47 NE6       30.28R
NANTUCKET      SUNNY     70  56  61 S5        30.27R
MARTHAS VNYRD  SUNNY     75  53  46 VRB7      30.27S


MAZALL-221600-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      SUNNY     72  50  45 E7        30.30S
FITCHBURG      SUNNY     73  51  46 E6        30.29S
ORANGE         SUNNY     68  51  54 CALM      30.30S
SPRINGFIELD    MOSUNNY   69  49  48 N3        30.25S
WESTFIELD      SUNNY     69  52  54 N3        30.28S
NORTH ADAMS    SUNNY     64  51  62 CALM      30.29F
PITTSFIELD     SUNNY     66  49  54 CALM      30.29S


RIZALL-221600-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     MOSUNNY   73  54  51 NE5       30.28R
NEWPORT        SUNNY     75  53  46 VRB5      30.27S
WESTERLY       SUNNY     72  57  59 SE5       30.27S


CTZALL-221600-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   MOSUNNY   72  52  49 CALM      30.28S
HARTFORD       SUNNY     70  52  52 CALM      30.27F
PLAINVILLE     SUNNY     72  51  47 NE3       30.27S
BRIDGEPORT     SUNNY     71  53  52 SW5       30.27S
DANBURY        SUNNY     74  51  44 VRB3      30.29S
GROTON         SUNNY     69  56  62 S6        30.26S
NEW HAVEN      SUNNY     69  56  62 W5        30.27S
CHESTER        SUNNY     77  48  36 N3        30.28S
MERIDEN        SUNNY     78  50  37 E3        30.27F
WILLIMANTIC    SUNNY     70  51  51 CALM      30.28F


MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-221600-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    MOSUNNY   66  54  65 E8        30.30S
BANGOR ME      PTSUNNY   62  48  60 E6        30.33R
CONCORD NH     SUNNY     66  51  58 CALM      30.29F
MANCHESTER NH  MOSUNNY   71  53  52 NW3       30.28S
NASHUA NH      NOT AVBL
PORTSMOUTH NH  MOSUNNY   72  52  49 NE8       30.28S
JAFFREY NH     SUNNY     71  52  50 VRB3      30.30S
KEENE NH       NOT AVBL
BURLINGTON VT  SUNNY     68  53  58 S8        30.25F
MT. WASHINGTON MOSUNNY   48  41  76 W13         N/A


NYZ052-076-221600-
EASTERN NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBANY         MOSUNNY   68  52  56 SW3       30.28S
NEW YORK CITY  SUNNY     73  49  42 E5        30.27S


ANZALL-221600-
MARINE OBSERVATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      1440   59 58   30/  8/ 10 1025.6R
BUZZARDS BAY     1400   64      70/  4/  4 1025.5R
NANTUCKET SOUND  1440   63 60   CALM  /  2 1024.3S
MASS BAY-STELLWA 1304   59      10/  8/  8 1024.4R  1 7/8  2/ 8
ISLE OF SHOALS   1400   60      40/  5/  6 1025.0R
S OF BLOCK IS    1456      63                N/A           3/11


......................KEY.........................
  SKY/WX - SKY CONDITION/PRESENT WEATHER
  TMP    - TEMPERATURE IN FAHRENHEIT
  DWPT   - DEWPOINT IN FAHRENHEIT
  RH     - RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PERCENT
  WIND   - DIRECTION AND SPEED IN MPH
  PRES   - MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN INCHES OF HG
  WCI    - WIND CHILL INDEX
  VSB    - VISIBILITY IN MILES
  HX     - HEAT INDEX
  TC     - TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS
  VRB    - VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
  N/A    - NOT AVAILABLE          

Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for
Most of Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
820 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

This is an automated product. These data are preliminary and have not
undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center
(NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and
certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.


Values represent highs yesterday, lows over the last 12 hours
and precipitation over the last 24 hours.

.BR BOX 1022 ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ

                          Max      Min      24 Hour
ID   Location             Temp     Temp   Precipitation

Eastern Massachusetts...
BED   Bedford             82   /    45   /    0.00
BVY   Beverly             82   /    48   /    0.00
BOS   Boston              83   /    56   /    0.00
LWM   Lawrence            82   /    48   /    0.00
EWB   New Bedford         81   /    49   /    0.00
OWD   Norwood             85   /    44   /    0.00
PYM   Plymouth            81   /    49   /    0.00
GHG   Marshfield          79   /    50   /

Cape Cod and the Islands...
CQX   Chatham             74   /    55   /    0.00
HYA   Hyannis             74   /    50   /    0.00
MVY   Marthas Vineyard    77   /    50   /    0.00
ACK   Nantucket           71   /    54   /    0.00
FMH   Falmouth            73   /    52   /
PVC   Provincetown         M   /     M   /

Central and Western Massachusetts...
FIT   Fitchburg           81   /    49   /    0.00
ORE   Orange              80   /    43   /    0.00
CEF   Springfield         85   /    46   /    0.00
BAF   Westfield           83   /    46   /    0.00
ORH   Worcester           79   /    61   /    0.00

Rhode Island...
BID   Block Island        73   /    57   /
SFZ   Smithfield          81   /     M   /
UUU   Newport             76   /    54   /    0.00
PVD   Providence          81   /    51   /    0.00
WST   Westerly            71   /    48   /    0.00

Northern Connecticut...
BDL   Hartford-Bradley    86   /    49   /    0.00
HFD   Hartford            82   /    49   /    0.00
IJD   Willimantic         81   /    45   /    0.00