Woburn Weather Center  62.3°F

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1011 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Northeast winds strengthen along the east coast, Cape, and
Islands this afternoon with some 30 to 40 mph gusts possible.
Rain continues at times for the Cape and Islands into Saturday
night. Rainfall chances decrease farther to the northwest into
this weekend. Gusty northeast winds will keep temperatures near
or below normal for much of our region into this weekend. The
next chance of rain after this weekend comes around the middle
of next week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM Update:

Not much change from the last update. Lowered winds slightly
based on observations, but gusts still look to reach close to 40
knots down towards the Cape and Islands. Continued to keep the
precipitation shield in the east. Otherwise, the forecast looks
to be on track.

Previous Discussion...

Pressure gradient between an area of low-pressure off the south
coast and a high pressure over Canada strengthens today allowing
for an uptick in the persistent northeast winds we`ve
experienced over the last 24 hours or so. Sustained winds will
range from 10 mph across the interior to 20 to 25 mph along the
east coast Cape and Islands. Winds will be gusty with some 30 to
40 mph wind gusts on The Cape and Islands. Shower activity
should again stay confined to southeast MA and The Cape.
Extensive cloud cover will support slightly cooler temps for
eastern MA and RI today in the mid to upper 60s. Not expecting
temperatures to be as warm in the CT River Valley as yesterday,
but still warmer than the areas to the east with highs peaking
in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The synoptic weather pattern remains largely unchanged through
Saturday with the area of low-pressure off the south coast
continuing to meander south of Nantucket. The pressure gradient
slackens a bit overnight bringing and end to the 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts, but we should continue to see gusts in the 20 to 30
mph range. Shower activity may penetrate a bit farther inland
tomorrow, but again we expect the southeast MA, Cape, and
Islands to see the most rainfall (0.5 to 1 inches tonight
through tomorrow). High temps take a dip again tomorrow
afternoon in the low to mid 60s east of I- 495 and upper 60s to
low 70s in the CT River Valley.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Becoming drier from NW to SE Sunday
* Dry to start next week, becoming unsettled mid-week
* Near to slightly below normal temperatures for this portion of the
  forecast

Latest guidance suite continued to converge towards a solution with
the timing of a stagnant low pressure SE of our region finally
moving farther offshore as a high pressure moves south from eastern
Canada. Drier conditions develop from NW to SE Saturday night into
Sunday, with the last of the showers expected to move offshore of
the Cape and islands by late Sunday afternoon. It`s possible this
timing may change with later forecasts. Some question as to how long
low level moisture hangs around across southeastern sections, so
that area might end up staying cloudy most of the day Sunday.
Farther inland looks to feature a good amount of sunshine.
Gusty NE winds also start to diminish Saturday night into Sunday.

High confidence that high pressure will re-establish dominance of
our weather Sunday night into Tuesday. Confidence diminishes towards
mid week, as the forecast will hinge on how quickly this high
pressure departs, and opens the door for a low pressure to move into
the Great Lakes towards mid week. Stayed close to the latest
NationalBlend guidance for precipitation chances since it is an
ensemble-based solution.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence

MVFR borderline IFR conditions persist at the same terminals
through tonight as area of low-pressure supporting northeast
winds and lower ceilings remains somewhat stationary. Wind gusts
will increase this afternoon with 40+ knot gusts possible at
Nantucket and 30 to 35 knot gusts possible over The Cape. Wind
gusts should be more modest at the remaining terminals in the 20
to 25 knot range. Gusts at Nantucket peak around 18Z before
gradually falling to the 30 to 35 knot range by 00Z tonight.
Expect continued shower activity over The Cape/Islands with some
stray showers possible at the eastern terminals. BDL,BAF,ORH
should stay dry today.

Tonight...High confidence in flight categories, lower confidence
in precipitation potential

Little change to flight categories overnight with more IFR/MVFR
ceilings and -SHRA over The Cape/Islands. Northeast winds remain
somewhat elevated from 10 to 20 knots with gusts from 20 to 30
knots. Strongest winds over The Cape/Islands.

Tomorrow

Interior terminals trend to VFR ceilings by 18Z. Lower ceilings
linger at BOS,PVD, and Cape/Island Terminals (MVFR/IFR ~ 1000
feet) with slow improvements by 00Z tomorrow evening.

BOS TAF...High Confidence

Teetering between MVFR/IFR for much of the next 36 hours. Steady
northeast winds with gusts from 20 to 25 knots. Should see
improvements to VFR by Saturday afternoon/evening.

BDL TAF... High Confidence
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

10 AM Update:

Expanded Gale Warning to include northern coastal waters and
into southern coastal waters, excluding Block Island.

Previous discussion:

Today through Saturday

Dangerous marine conditions through Saturday as an area of low
pressure south Nantucket continues to produce a persistent fetch
over the coastal waters. Persistent northeast winds will result
in building seas and significant wave heights from 10 to 13 feet
off the coast of Wellfleet. The eastern waters may see wave
heights from 7 to 10 feet over the near-shore marine zones. For
the south coastal waters the near-shore zones will be in the 4
to 6 foot range the outer marine zones in the 6 to foot range.

Northeast winds strengthen to gale force over the south coastal
waters today with some gusts up to 40 knots possible. A Gale
Warning remains in effect through this evening. Winds weaken
somewhat tonight into tomorrow but still remain elevated with
gusts up to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed through the weekend.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Watch has been converted to a Coastal Flood
Advisory. Latest suite of guidance has trended toward lower
surge values for eastern MA as of this evening. If we consult
 the latest 90th percentile PETSS model run, most locations are
falling short of moderate flood stage. While minor coastal
flooding will be more common, some pockets of moderate coastal
flooding will be possible at locations recently impacted by
erosion or locations that are impacted by the elevated wave
heights.

Since confidence is high that steady northeast winds will
persist through at least Saturday afternoon, we`ve included the
advisory to cover the Friday night and Saturday afternoon high
tide cycles. Astronomical high tides will be substantially
lower tonight compared to this afternoon and Saturday afternoon,
but several tide gages in eastern MA are forecast to reach or
fall just short of minor flood stage overnight. Even if
locations fall short of minor flood stage during tonight`s high
tide, we still expect at least pockets of minor coastal flooding
due to the elevated wave action.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-019-
     022-024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 7 PM EDT this evening for MAZ023.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ230-236-
     237.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231>235-250-251-
     254>256.

SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...Belk/Hrencecin/RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Belk/Nash
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin/RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RM          

Zone Forecast Product for Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1003 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Forecast Synopsis
Northeast winds strengthen along the east coast, Cape, and
Islands this afternoon with some 30 to 40 mph gusts possible.
Rain continues at times for the Cape and Islands into Saturday
night. Rainfall chances decrease farther to the northwest into
this weekend. Gusty northeast winds will keep temperatures near
or below normal for much of our region into this weekend. The
next chance of rain after this weekend comes around the middle
of next week.

Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the city of Cambridge
1003 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.THIS AFTERNOON...Cloudy. A slight chance of showers, then a
chance of showers. Patchy fog. Near steady temperature in the
lower 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Chance of rain 40 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Patchy
fog. Near steady temperature around 60. Northeast winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Near
steady temperature around 60. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up
to 20 mph in the evening.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds
10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper
60s. Lows in the mid 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s.          

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1200 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2024

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

MAZALL-201700-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         CLOUDY    65  58  78 NE21G26   29.99S
BEVERLY        CLOUDY    64  58  80 NE15G29   29.99F
LAWRENCE       CLOUDY    63  59  87 NE12      30.03S
BEDFORD        CLOUDY    63  59  87 NE18G25   30.00S FOG
NORWOOD        CLOUDY    65  59  81 NE12G21   29.99F
MARSHFIELD     CLOUDY    61  57  88 NE17G28   29.97S FOG
PLYMOUTH       NOT AVBL
TAUNTON        LGT RAIN  63  59  87 VRB5      29.96S
NEW BEDFORD    LGT RAIN  63  63 100 N10G21    29.93S


MAZALL-201700-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       NOT AVBL
HYANNIS        RAIN      60  60 100 N16G28    29.90S FOG
CHATHAM        RAIN      64  63  96 NE12G31   29.90S FOG
PROVINCETOWN   LGT RAIN  60  60 100 NE20G28   29.95S FOG
NANTUCKET      LGT RAIN  64  62  93 MISG      29.86S FOG
MARTHAS VNYRD  LGT RAIN  65  62  90 N18G35    29.89S FOG


MAZALL-201700-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      CLOUDY    62  59  90 NE7G20    30.02S FOG
FITCHBURG      CLOUDY    64  60  87 NE7       30.03S FOG
ORANGE         CLOUDY    68  60  75 N9        30.02F
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  59  66 NE13      29.97S
WESTFIELD      CLOUDY    70  59  68 N12       30.00S
NORTH ADAMS    CLOUDY    70  59  68 SE5       30.01F
PITTSFIELD     CLOUDY    69  57  65 VRB6      30.02S


RIZALL-201700-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     CLOUDY    63  59  87 NE21G32   29.97R
NEWPORT        RAIN      62  60  93 N17G28    29.93S FOG
BLOCK ISLAND   LGT RAIN  63  61  93 N17G29    29.92S
SMITHFIELD     CLOUDY    62  62 100 NE13      29.99S
WESTERLY       CLOUDY    68  60  75 N15G29    29.93S


CTZALL-201700-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   CLOUDY    73  59  61 NE16G24   29.99F
HARTFORD       PTSUNNY   72  59  63 NE14G21   29.97S
PLAINVILLE     CLOUDY    70  60  72 N10G17    29.99R
BRIDGEPORT     MOSUNNY   77  60  55 N16G26    29.94F
DANBURY        PTSUNNY   75  59  57 N12       29.98F
GROTON         PTSUNNY   71  61  70 NE21G31   29.92S
NEW HAVEN      PTSUNNY   77  63  61 N14G28    29.94F
CHESTER        PTSUNNY   70  61  73 N12G22    29.96S
MERIDEN        CLOUDY    74  57  55 N15G25    29.97S
WILLIMANTIC    CLOUDY    68  59  73 N15G24    29.97F
OXFORD         PTSUNNY   69  61  75 N16G22    29.99F


MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-201700-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    CLOUDY    63  58  83 N13G18    30.06R
BANGOR ME      PTSUNNY   66  51  58 NE15G22   30.08F
CONCORD NH     CLOUDY    67  60  78 NE9G20    30.03S
MANCHESTER NH  CLOUDY    66  61  84 NE6       30.02R
NASHUA NH      CLOUDY    64  61  90 NE6       30.03S
PORTSMOUTH NH  DRIZZLE   63  60  92 NE12      30.02S FOG
JAFFREY NH     CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A VRB3      30.04S
KEENE NH       CLOUDY    68  60  75 NE6       30.03S
BURLINGTON VT  MOSUNNY   73  61  65 VRB3      30.03F
MT. WASHINGTON PTSUNNY   46  45  93 E28         N/A


NYZ052-076-201700-
EASTERN NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBANY         PTSUNNY   75  61  61 NW7       30.01F
NEW YORK CITY  PTSUNNY   76  59  55 NE12      29.94F


ANZALL-201700-
MARINE OBSERVATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      1550   62 64   30/ 25/ 33 1015.1F         9/ 8
BUZZARDS BAY     1500   63      10/ 23/ 26 1012.7R
NANTUCKET SOUND  1550   65 70   20/ 21/ 27 1011.2F         4/ 5
MASS BAY-STELLWA 1404   62      50/ 27/ 33 1014.5R  1 7/8 10/ 6
ISLE OF SHOALS   1500   63      50/ 25/ 27 1015.2R
S OF BLOCK IS    1556      69                N/A           6/ 5


......................KEY.........................
  SKY/WX - SKY CONDITION/PRESENT WEATHER
  TMP    - TEMPERATURE IN FAHRENHEIT
  DWPT   - DEWPOINT IN FAHRENHEIT
  RH     - RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PERCENT
  WIND   - DIRECTION AND SPEED IN MPH
  PRES   - MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN INCHES OF HG
  WCI    - WIND CHILL INDEX
  VSB    - VISIBILITY IN MILES
  HX     - HEAT INDEX
  TC     - TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS
  VRB    - VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
  N/A    - NOT AVAILABLE          

Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for
Most of Southern New England
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
820 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

This is an automated product. These data are preliminary and have not
undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center
(NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and
certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.


Values represent highs yesterday, lows over the last 12 hours
and precipitation over the last 24 hours.

.BR BOX 0920 ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ

                          Max      Min      24 Hour
ID   Location             Temp     Temp   Precipitation

Eastern Massachusetts...
BED   Bedford             76   /    61   /    0.01
BVY   Beverly             71   /    61   /    0.09
BOS   Boston              75   /    62   /    0.01
LWM   Lawrence            76   /    61   /    0.04
EWB   New Bedford         72   /    64   /    0.22
OWD   Norwood             76   /    64   /    0.07
PYM   Plymouth             M   /     M   /    0.00
GHG   Marshfield          68   /    63   /

Cape Cod and the Islands...
CQX   Chatham             69   /    65   /    1.82
HYA   Hyannis             68   /    61   /    0.53
MVY   Marthas Vineyard    73   /    64   /    2.01
ACK   Nantucket           68   /    62   /    2.21
FMH   Falmouth            68   /    64   /
PVC   Provincetown        67   /    61   /

Central and Western Massachusetts...
FIT   Fitchburg           82   /    62   /    0.11
ORE   Orange              85   /    59   /      T
CEF   Springfield         87   /    59   /    0.00
BAF   Westfield           87   /    61   /    0.00
ORH   Worcester           78   /    61   /    0.03

Rhode Island...
BID   Block Island        74   /    63   /
SFZ   Smithfield          72   /    61   /
UUU   Newport             71   /    63   /    0.07
PVD   Providence          75   /    63   /      T
WST   Westerly            79   /    66   /    0.00

Northern Connecticut...
BDL   Hartford-Bradley    89   /    65   /    0.00
HFD   Hartford            85   /    66   /    0.00
IJD   Willimantic         81   /    64   /      T