Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1217 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
1 to 2" of snow is expected very late tonight into Saturday
across the lower elevations of interior Massachusetts and
northern Connecticut with 2-4" possible across the higher
terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. Offshore
low pressure may bring a plowable snow to portions of the
region Sunday into Sunday night...but the westward extent
remains quite uncertain. We continue to have high confidence in
a shot of arctic air later Monday into Wednesday with bitterly
cold wind chills.
KEY MESSAGES
- Blustery and cold today with windchills in the single digits
above and below zero for much of the region.
- 1 to 2" of snow is expected very late tonight into Saturday
across the lower elevations of interior Massachusetts and
northern Connecticut. 2-4" possible across the higher
terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills.
- Offshore low pressure may bring a plowable snow to portions of the
region Sun-Sun night...but the westward extent remains uncertain.
- Arctic cold front crosses the region later Mon bringing well below normal
temps, bitterly cold wind chills, along with Gales/Freezing Spray for our
waters into Wed.
- Some moderation in temperatures expected by Wed night-Thu with
perhaps a period of snow.
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder today behind a strong cold front
Much colder today with highs 15-20 degrees colder than Thurs. Values
will range from the mid to upper 20s across the interior to the
lower to mid 30s closer to the coast. Peak winds expected through
15z as a 45-50kt low level jet moves in behind deepening low
pressure to the northeast. Peak gusts will likely be in the 35-45
mph range especially in the higher terrain. Wind chills will bottom
out in the single digits for the majority of the region this
morning, except zero to 5 below over the Berkshires and Worcester
Hills.
Shortwave trough will be quick to move out today with rising heights
and shortwave ridging moving into the region. Dry column under high
pressure will mean colder but clear conditions today. The core of
the coldest air aloft moves out this afternoon allowing temps to
recover into the lower 30s, except mid-upper 20s higher elevations
with winds gradually subsiding mid to late afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2...1 to 2" of snow is expected very late tonight into Saturday
across the lower elevations of interior Massachusetts and northern
Connecticut. 2-4" possible across the higher terrain of the Berkshires
and northern Worcester Hills.
Broad upper trough amplifies over the Great Lakes with a series of
embedded shortwaves rotating around it. One shortwave passes to the
north and west and brings two rounds of precipitation including
elevation snow and rain along the coastal plain Saturday morning and
afternoon. Still anticipating a light event with a coating to as
much as 2 inches possible, mainly north and west of I-95. Guidance
has continued to trend warmer for areas south and east of I-95
bringing boundary layer temps in the upper 30s and even lower 40s
along the coastal plain. There still may be a slushy coating in
these locations, but impacts will be limited.
A lull in precipitation likely develops as WAA and overrunning wanes
Saturday morning. Another period of interior snow and coastal rain
develops during the late morning/early afternoon as a mid level
front moves into New Eng with area of mid level frontogenesis.
Additional measurable snow will be mostly confined northwest of I-95
as a warmer boundary layer will result in mostly rain in the coastal
plain. Snow could fall moderately for a period of time Saturday
afternoon with omega values falling to -10 to -15 ubar/sec as
frontogenesis increases. Additional accum Saturday afternoon of an
inch or 2 is possible in the interior Sat afternoon with total
accumulation from very late tonight through Sat of 1-2 inches,
much of this focused across central/W MA and northern CT with
2-4" possible in the high terrain of the Berkshires and northern
Worcester Hills. It is possible rain flips to snow near I-95
before precip ends but not expecting more than a slushy coating
here.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Offshore low pressure may bring a plowable snow to
portions of the region Sun-Sun night...but the westward extent
remains quite uncertain.
There still remains considerable uncertainty with the westward
extent of a potentially plowable snowfall in association with an offshore
low pressure system Sun into Sun night. We normally do not see this much
spread in the guidance for a day 3 forecast...but there are so many
moving parts. The 00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF operational models keep the low
pressure far enough east that taken verbatim would result in very
little if any snow ever reaching as far northwest as the Boston to
Providence corridor. However...it is more complex than that. We
noted that some of the 00z GEFS ensembles have shifted further
northwest. In addition...the 00z RGEM/UKMET were considerably
further northwest and would bring accumulating snow all the way back
across distant interior southern New England. Also of note...is that
the GFS/ECMWF AI models continue to be considerably west of the
traditional GFS/ECMWF models. These AI models bring a plowable
snowfall all the way back across interior southern New England.
While we do not have a lot of experience utilizing a lot of the AI
guidance...that is certainly concerning.
So in a nutshell...given all the uncertainty there probably is not a
ton of value in a deterministic snowfall forecast Sun into Sun
night. That being said...appears the greatest risk for a plowable
snow might be near and southeast of the Boston to Providence
corridor. That possibility could extend back into western MA and CT
if the western solutions verify. And it is also possible that there
will be little if any snowfall even into the Boston to Providence
corridor. We do think we should see the models getting a much better
handle on this in the next 12-24 hours.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Arctic cold front crosses the region later Mon
bringing well below normal temps, bitterly cold wind chills, along
with Gales/Freezing Spray for our waters into Wed.
What ever happens with the western extent of the snow shield Sun
into Sun night...the main concern for the first half of next week
will be a shot of arctic air. All model guidance and their ensembles
remain in excellent agreement. An arctic cold front crosses the
region late Mon into Mon night...bringing well below normal
temperatures along with bitterly cold wind chills on very gusty west
winds. The cold may peak Tue with high temps only between 15 and 25
degrees and low temps mainly in the single digits to the lower
teens. Wind chills will drop below zero given the windy conditions.
Lastly...moderate freezing spray and gale force wind gusts are a
very good bet for our marine zones.
KEY MESSAGE 5...Some moderation in temperatures expected by Wed
night-Thu with perhaps a period of snow.
Deep upper trough begins to lift off to the northeast allowing for
rising height fields. This will allow for some moderation in temps
by Wed night into Thu. We may also see a period of snow in the warm
air advection pattern...but plenty of time to sort that out.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update...
Today...High confidence.
VFR. W wind gusts of 25 to 35 knot with a few brief gusts up to
40 knots. Gust diminish between 21z-00z.
Tonight and Saturday...Moderate confidence.
VFR this evening with diminishing winds becoming southwest.
Some MVFR conditions will develop across parts of interior
southern New England between 6z and 12z in snow with perhaps
some brief IFR conditions too. These conditions will continue
at times on Sat. Generally looking at 1-3" of snow across parts
of western/central MA and perhaps portions of far northern CT
with perhaps some 3-6" amounts in the highest terrain. Temps
rising above freezing should result in wet runways by Sat
afternoon outside the highest terrain of the Berks and northern
Worcester Hills. Meanwhile...across eastern MA and RI just a
few brief rain/wet snow showers with mainly VFR conditions
persisting.
Saturday Night...High confidence.
VFR, lingering MVFR across higher terrain of central and western
Massachusetts. Light W wind 5-10 knots.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
VFR through 08z-10z, moderate confidence in lower ceilings early
Saturday morning with periods of -SHSN, better confidence in a
period of -SN after 18z Saturday through 22z.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Breezy.
Sunday through Sunday Night: Breezy. Slight chance SN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day through Tuesday: Windy with gusts up
to 35 kt.
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday...High Confidence.
Gusty W winds this morning with gusts as high as 40kts, especially
in the outer waters. The cold air and increasing wave action will
result in light freezing spray developing. Winds will begin to
diminish later this afternoon and eventually drop to less than 20 kt
later tonight. Brief lull arrives overnight with winds possibly
increasing to SCA levels again Saturday afternoon.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of snow.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Low risk for gale force winds with
gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of snow showers.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of
snow showers.
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...Frank/FT
AVIATION...KJC/Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Frank/FT
Forecast And Data Provided By NOAA-NWS Boston / Norton, MA