❰ Current Conditions

Wind Advisory
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY

Wind Advisory issued February 28 at 7:20PM EST until February 29 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Boston/Norton MA

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Tolland and Windham Counties. In Massachusetts, Eastern Essex, Western Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties. In Rhode Island, Northwest Providence County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Expires: February 29 at 7:00 AM EST
NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1036 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring numerous showers and strong wind
gusts into this evening, followed by sharply falling 
temperatures and a brief changeover to snow with minor 
accumulations possible in the higher elevations. Dry Thursday, 
but windy and colder than normal. High pressure builds in on 
Friday. This moderates temperatures and brings lighter winds. 
Unsettled this weekend and perhaps into early next week. 
Considerable uncertainty on how things evolve, but temps appear 
to be near to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast this evening. tracking a fine-
line of convection as it moves east across southern New England.
Expecting this fine-line to be offshore of the Cape sometime
between 11 PM and midnight. This fine-line should pass by
Nantucket before 1 AM. 

Have seen peak reported gusts of 55 to 65 mph with this fine
line. More commonly though, gusts were more in the range of 45 
to 55 mph. 

The other impressive thing is the temperature drop behind this
line. Temperatures at Orange MA dropped about 10 degrees in an
hour. By daybreak, still thinking temperatures there will drop
another 15 degrees. A similar story elsewhere across southern 
New England. Expecting low temperatures to be 15-30 degrees 
lower from the present readings at 1030 PM this evening. The 
largest drop will be across RI and southeastern MA, where the 
leading edge of the colder air has yet to arrive.

Liked the latest consensus timing for the precipitation from the
HRRR, RAP and NationalBlend. expecting all precipitation to be
offshore by 4 AM, with the western half of southern New England
mainly dry by 1 AM.

730 PM Update...

Have upgraded the Wind Advisory across the rest of western and
portions of central MA to a High Wind Warning. This is based on
the latest obs across eastern NY along with latest short term
high res guidance. Bumped up our gusts toward the latest HRRR
through roughly 06Z as it is doing well based on obs.

Previous discussion...

Key Points...

* Strong to potentially damaging wind gusts expanding across 
  rest of southern New England tonight as winds shift to the 
  west

* Sharply falling temperatures tonight, with rain changing to a 
  brief period of snow before ending. Minor snow accumulation 
  possible over the higher elevations

Scattered to numerous pre-frontal showers will continue to move 
across SNE through the afternoon into early evening within the deep 
moist SW flow. Temporary lull in the strongest wind gusts this 
afternoon but wind will be ramping up again late today and this 
evening near the south coast as secondary low level jet develops to 
the south and strengthens as it expands across SE New Eng. Some 
uncertainty on strength of the low level jet as hi-res guidance is 
considerably stronger than global guidance and there is also quite a 
bit of variation among the hi-res sources. Taking a blend would 
suggest a 75-85 kt low level jet peaking 00-03z over Cape Cod and 
Islands.  

Soundings show a low level inversion which adds uncertainty to the 
wind gust forecast. Hi-res guidance has temps in the mid 50s and 
perhaps upper 50s across SE coastal MA and the upper Cape which will 
help to erode the inversion and increase potential for damaging wind 
gusts to 60+ mph, with 45-55 mph gusts near the south coast into SE 
MA. Any convective showers may also help to bring stronger wind 
gusts to the surface. The high wind warning for Cape/Islands

Attention will then shift to the strong cold front passage this 
evening. The front is moving through western NY with a fine line 
accompanying it. The front will sweep through the region between 8 
pm and midnight. All the hi-res CAMs show a weakening fine line 
moving into western NY then further weakening as it moves east. This 
is a reasonable expectation given the pressure rise-fall couplet is 
weakening and instability is limited. However, it is still a strong 
rise-fall couplet which will bring strong wind gusts with the fropa 
as winds shift to west. Boundary layer quickly deepens behind the 
front in the increasing cold advection with low level lapse rates 
approaching dry adiabatic. Expect strongest west wind gusts in 
western MA where 50-60 mph gusts likely. A few 60+ mph gusts 
possible in the Berkshires where we upgraded to a high wind warning. 
The magnitude of wind should decrease further E with wind gusts to 
45-55 mph behind the front. 

The cold front will be followed by a sharp temp drop with temps 
falling from the 50s through the 30s in a 2-4 hr period, with 
morning lows ranging in the 20s. Wind chills will drop into the 
teens by morning with single numbers in the higher terrain. Rain 
will flip to a brief period of snow before ending as rapid drying is 
moving in from the west. Accumulations will be limited to a coating 
to an inch, especially higher elevations and potentially up to 2 
inches in the Berkshires. There is a low risk for isolated icy spots 
as temperatures drop, especially where any minor accum occurs, but 
otherwise not a big concern as strong winds and rapid drying will 
dry out pavement before any freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...

Mid level trough swings through New England with an accompanying 
cold pool aloft and area of low-mid level moisture. So sunshine will 
be followed by sct-bkn diurnal cu developing by midday. While dry 
weather is expected, some of the guidance is indicating a few lake 
effect snow showers may extend into the Berkshires. W-NW winds will 
remain gusty with well mixed boundary layer supporting 30-40 mph 
gusts, possibly a bit stronger over the higher elevations. 925 mb 
temps -8C to -10C so a cold day with below normal temps. Highs will 
be in the low-mid 30s, except upper 20s over the higher elevations. 

Thursday night...

Mid level trough axis moves to the east with high pres building in 
from the west. Mainly clear skies with diminishing wind will lead to 
good radiational cooling. Lows will drop into the teens and lower 
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather to end the week. Temperatures trending 
  near/slightly warmer than seasonable. 

* Unsettled this weekend through early to mid next week. Though 
  details are hazy especially for Sun into mid next week. 
  Temperatures near to above normal.

Friday...

A ridge axis builds from the OH Valley into the central Great Lakes 
early on Fri. This builds into the eastern Great Lakes by late in 
the day. Behind the ridge, a shortwave lifts into the OH 
Valley/central Great Lakes. High pressure builds into/south of our 
region on Fri, but will shift offshore late in the day. 

Quiet weather anticipated across southern New England to end the 
week. Temperatures will be rebounding to near/above seasonable 
levels with SWly flow. Temps at 925 hPa warm to +/- 1 degree 
Celsius. Highs top out in the 40s. Will not be as windy as the high 
relaxes the pressure gradient. 

Friday Night through Tuesday...

A shortwave will lift from the central Great Lakes Fri night into 
the Mid Atlantic/eastern Great Lakes by Sat AM. The shortwave slowly 
lifts into New England by late on Sat. The shortwave could continue 
lifting northeastward into Sun, but some uncertainty on this as some 
guidance cuts this feature off to our south/southeast Sun into early 
next week. A frontal boundary will be nearby our region to the 
south/southeast through this timeframe. 

A fair amount of uncertainty with how things will evolve through 
this timeframe. The GFS/GEM along with the GEFS/GEPS guidance move 
the shortwave along into the Gulf of ME by Sun AM. A ridge builds in 
behind it before another shortwave lifts in early next week.  The 
ECMWF along with the EPS guidance cuts off the wave nearby/south of 
our region into early next week. Most confident in rain shower 
chances Fri night through Sat at this point. Though am uncertain on 
the intensity and amounts. The GFS/GEM/NAM/ICON along with the 
GEFS/GEPS bring a low along the front into southern New England, 
which brings heavier rain showers to our region into Fri Night 
through Sat Night. The ECMWF/UKMET along with the EPS are not as 
progressive with the wave. This brings the low in much more slowly, 
so will still have rain showers, but not as intense with lower 
totals into Sun AM. Given this, did keep our precip chances to 
chance/likely in this period. This will also have implications on a 
S/SEly low level jet as the GFS/GEM/GEFS/GEPS could bring some 
stronger winds to our area in comparison to the EC/EPS solutions. 

After Sat Night confidence in the forecast lowers significantly due 
to the handling of the shortwave. Not really sure if the progressive 
solutions (GEFS/GEPS) are the way to go, which would keep us drier 
and warmer. Likewise the EPS is much slower to push the wave 
through. This would keep us unsettled and cooler with prolonged 
onshore flow. Due to the differences have stuck with the NBM at this 
point, which keeps slight chance to chances of precip late in the 
weekend into early/mid next week. Stay tuned as hopefully we will 
have a better idea how things will evolve as we get closer. The NBM 
could be running a bit too warm in this timeframe especially if the 
prolonged onshore flow solutions are correct.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent. 

Tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

IFR to MVFR ceilings with rain showers and strong S/SSW winds.
Could have visibilities as low as 1-3/4 SM visibility in areas
of heavier showers. A cold front will sweep across the region
between 02-08Z tonight, which will shift wind rapidly to the
W/NW. Right ahead of the front there will be moderate rain, and
a quick hit of snow just following the front. A dusting to up to
1 inch of accumulation is possible. Amount of 1 inch are most
likely across the higher terrain. 


S/SSW winds ahead of the front gusting to 35-45 kt. Strong 
winds aloft will mix to the surface with the front, with gusts 
to 50 kt possible. Strong LLWS (speed shear) much of this 
evening and early Thursday morning. LLWS as high as 60 to 70 
kt, strongest across the Cape and Islands. Winds shift 
dramatically to the WNW behind the front, gusting to as much as 
30-40 kt through 12Z. 

Thursday... High Confidence

VFR with gusty WNW winds, 15-25 kts and gusts 30-40kts. Cold 
pool aloft will generate some mid level cumulus, between 4 to 6 
kft. Winds peak during the morning hours and diminish slightly 
during the afternoon.

Thursday night... High Confidence 

Diurnal CU dissipates early evening as the sun sets, leading to
a mainly clear evening. VFR. Winds W/WNW 10-15kt gusting to 15 
to 20kt. 

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

MVFR to IFR conditions with rain showers this evening, strong
S/SSW winds and LLWS. Cold front slides through roughly 05-07Z
and winds rapidly shift to the W/WNW with gusts of 45 to perhaps
50 kts. As the front slides through will have snow mixing in 
for a brief period before precip ends. No accumulation
anticipated due to warm antecedent conditions.  Winds diminish 
slightly Thursday afternoon before eventually dying back to less
than 20 kt Thursday night. Diurnal cumulus around 4-6 kft will 
be present much of the day Thursday. 

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. 

IFR ceilings to start with rain showers. A cold front 
approaches and crosses the terminal between 01-03Z tonight, 
bringing the chance for heavy rain and post frontal snow showers
for a brief period. Snow accumulation not expected given warm 
antecedent conditions. Winds shift dramatically from the SSW to 
the WNW behind the front and rapidly improve to VFR. Gusts to 
50 kt not out of the question with the front, but between 30 
and 40 kt ahead of and behind the front. Winds diminish 
slightly Thursday afternoon before eventually dying back to less
than 20 kt Thursday night. Diurnal cumulus around 5 kft will be
present much of the day Thursday. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday through Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale Warnings for all waters into Thursday. Another surge of strong 
winds this evening with southerly gusts to 45 kt, then post-frontal 
westerly gales after midnight into Thursday. Winds gradually 
diminish Thu afternoon through Thu night. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain showers likely. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
showers likely. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers. 

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MAZ005>007-013>021.
     High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for MAZ002>004-
     008>012-022>024-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ230-250-251.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ231>235-237-
     254>256.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ236.

&&