Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
116 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the time of the Small Craft Advisory to Monday evening.
Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather continues this weekend as slow low pressure
slowly moves away into the Gulf of Maine.
- More clouds than sun for early to midweek, with seasonable
temperatures.
- Turning unsettled late this week potentially into part of the
weekend.
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather continues this weekend as slow
low pressure slowly moves away into the Gulf of Maine.
Current surface analysis shows that a weak area of low pressure has
developed just SE of the islands early this afternoon. This feature
will hold the most sway over the weekend's weather as it slowly
deepens and moves NE into the Gulf of Maine over the next day or so.
Aloft, a potent upper level low will provide enough instability for
showers and low clouds providing for a generally raw and unsettled
weekend.
For today, expect periods of showers to redevelop this afternoon
after a lull this morning. Shower activity will be driven by a
rather potent mid level low. This low should pass overhead tonight.
The colder air aloft will result in increased lapse rates, which in
turn should increase shower coverage later today and tonight. These
showers will be much lighter in intensity. The greatest coverage of
showers should be towards northern and eastern MA.
For Sunday, expect similarly raw and unsettled conditions as
cyclonic flow results in a final round of wrap around showers.
Greatest chance for additional appreciable rainfall exists across
northern Massachusetts. Any lingering rainfall comes to an end by
mid morning Sunday as a much drier air mass wraps in behind
departing low pressure. Partial clearing by the afternoon helps to
mix the boundary layer allowing for a breezy day with NW winds
increasing to between 10 and 15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph.
Temperatures both days increase into the lower to mid 50s with lows
falling into the upper 30s to low 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...More clouds than sun for early to midweek, with
seasonable temperatures.
Southern New England looks to be on the periphery of an active WNWly
northern stream flow per ensembles and AI-based solutions through
midweek, to go along with cooler profiles aloft (e.g. 850 mb temps
around 0 to -2C). While generally dry weather looks to prevail,
cooler profiles aloft should support more of a mix of clouds and
sun. Highs should run mainly in the upper 40s interior/higher
terrain to the mid 50s in the lower elevations, which are around
seasonable for this time of year.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning unsettled late this week potentially into
part of the weekend.
Model ensembles and AI-based guidance continue to point to the
latter part of the upcoming workweek into a part of next weekend as
becoming increasingly active, although there is still quite a bit of
uncertainties in the details. This more active period of weather
appears to stem from a rather potent northern stream trough coming
out of the Canadian Prairie region potentially phasing with trough
energy coming out of the central Rockies occurring around midweek.
This stream-phasing is indicated more bullishly by the GFS/ECMWF
ensemble means, which show a resulting deep closed low at 500 mb
near the central Appalachians, and sfc offshore low pressure
development near the mid-Atlc states which returns northward or
northeastward near or east of the 40N/70W benchmark area around
Friday night and continuing into Saturday. The Canadian GEM is more
of an outlier, which shows cool but dry weather Fri-Sat as the two
streams never phase, instead bringing a coastal low pressure in
around Saturday night and/or Sunday.
Given the above, and that is is still effectively a Day-6 to Day-7
forecast, there's still too much uncertainty at this point in time
to really drill into the details. Generally speaking, pronounced
easterly onshore flow would tend to favor coastal areas and
potentially further inland staying as a cool, raw rain given SSTs
which are still in the mid 50s. However there appears to be
sufficient enough cold air aloft particularly in interior portions
of Southern New England that could force a cool-rain-to-wet-snow
scenario into the picture, and this is reflected in some ensemble
members and in some AI-ensembles. But those are really just big
picture pattern-recognition assessments, and we'll need to continue
to monitor subsequent guidance for more agreement in terms of the
sfc low track, its timing and how far east would sub-0C air aloft
extend.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
Many areas may remain IFR through the afternoon and evening based
on the latest guidance. NW and WNW winds continue this
afternoon into the evening, and generally remain at or below 10
kt.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
IFR/MVFR ceilings in scattered rain showers overnight. West
winds start light and increase through the overnight hours;
10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kt, except for 20-30 kt gusts for
Cape and Island terminals. A more solid area of rain moves into
the eastern terminals including BOS between 08-09z. Steady rain
lingers through at least 12z Sun.
Sunday...High confidence.
MVFR and local IFR conditions improve to VFR by afternoon from
SW to NE. MVFR conditions take longer to clear out for the Cape
and Islands. W winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts as high as
30 kt by the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends,
moderate confidence in exact timing and exact details.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence
in timing and exact details.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.
Monday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Veterans Day: VFR.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence on trends, lower confidence on
exact timing and details.
Gusty W to NW winds develop tonight into Sunday, which will
lead to another round of rough seas, mainly across the outer
coastal waters. While there will likely be several hours of a
lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions, may just extend it
across the outer RI coastal waters for messaging. Rough seas and
gusty winds should return by this evening there. Elsewhere,
Small Craft Advisory conditions develop tonight and continue
through at least Monday night.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Veterans Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ232-233.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ234.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Monday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday
for ANZ255.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ256.
DISCUSSION...Loconto/FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT