Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
315 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A beautiful day is in store today with high pressure overhead.
Low pressure tracks northwest of our region Thursday and
Thursday night bringing patchy showers to southern New England.
Mainly rain is expected with this system, with a low probability
of a wintry mix Thursday afternoon across far NW MA. 
Unseasonably mild temperatures follow on Friday and record highs
may be challenged. Cooler weather returns this weekend...but 
temperatures will still be a bit above normal of this time of 
year. We also will have to watch a southern stream low pressure 
system this weekend...but it remains uncertain if any 
precipitation will make it northward into our region.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Any patchy black ice that formed overnight will quickly melt as we 
head into the morning commute. Lingering low/mid clouds over 
the high terrain will scour out this morning, yielding bright, 
sunny conditions as high pressure moves overhead. 

Took the opportunity to bump temperatures up a bit compared to the 
previous forecast given there are a few signals that we will 
overachieve by a few degrees today. Given deep mixing this afternoon 
and the warm start to the morning, with temperatures in the upper 
30s to near 40 across the south coast (thanks to southerly flow 
overnight) temperatures are expected to climb into the mid and upper 
40s across much of the region. A few locations have a shot at 50F. 
Now that we have entered solar Spring, the climbing sun angle will 
quite noticeable today, especially in areas with southern exposure!

Breezy conditions are expected later this morning and afternoon as 
winds continue to shift the west/northwest by this afternoon. Gusts 
15-20 kt will be common given a tight pressure gradient and CAA 
filtering from the NW. 


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

The first half of the night will be mainly clear before some 
high clouds filter in after midnight. Given winds will go light
after sunset, utilized CONSMOS guidance, like the previous 
shift, to account for radiational cooling. Widespread 20s are 
expected across interior southern New England, with 30s across 
the coastal plain. 

Clouds filtering in before sunrise will be ahead of our next 
precipitation maker that eyes our region Thursday afternoon. 
Clouds will continue to increase in coverage from west to east 
as low pressure tracks well to our west/northwest across 
southern Ontario. While we will have a SW LLJ supportive of 
ascent and PWATs approaching 300% of normal, it appears
precipitation will be more scattered in nature as the best 
forcing with this system passes to our north and a dry slot 
begins to push in from the SW. The notion of patchy 
precipitation is supported by HREF reflectivity ensemble 
members like the FV3 and HRRR. Given warm antecedent 
conditions, anticipating that this system will fall primarily as
rain, with the potential for significant mixed precipitation 
remaining north of our region. With that said, can't rule out 
that some light wintry mix is possible across far NW MA at 
precip onset, between 15-20Z Thursday afternoon. This system is
expected to be rather quick hitting, but will extend into the 
long term period.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
highlights...

* Some showers Thu evening followed by drier weather after midnight 
  with temps rising through the 40s to perhaps near 50 by daybreak

* Quite Breezy & unseasonably mild Fri. Near record high temps.

* Cooler this weekend...but temps still a bit above normal

* Watching a low pressure system this weekend, but it is uncertain 
  if any precipitation makes it as far north as southern New England

* Above normal temps early next week

Details...

Thursday night...

Low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will lift into Quebec 
Thursday night. This will take the bulk of the forcing/dynamics well 
to the north of our region. However...a modest southwest LLJ coupled 
with a warm front crossing the region will generate some showers 
Thursday evening. The bulk of these showers should exit the region 
near or shortly after midnight. It should become breezy behind the 
warm front as temps rise through the 40s to perhaps near 50 by 
daybreak.

Friday...

A cold front will cross the region early Friday. However...given the 
very mild start and excellent mixing on westerly flow it will be 
unseasonably mild. Despite cooling temps aloft...we expect highs 
well up into the 50s to perhaps near 60 in a few spots. It will also 
be quite breezy to windy given magnitude of the westerly jet and 
excellent mixing depicted on the soundings. Westerly wind gusts of 
25 to 40 mph are anticipated.

This Weekend...

High pressure building in from the west will result in cooler 
temperatures this weekend...but readings still a bit above normal 
for this time of year. High temps should mainly be in the 40-45 
degree range. 

The biggest question remains if we see any precipitation in southern 
New England this weekend. There is a southern stream low pressure 
system that will be associated with an abundance of moisture. 
However...northern stream energy is pretty flat which will limit the 
northern extent of the precipitation shield. The 00z GFS/CMC/ECMWF 
guidance seems to keep this precipitation mainly to our south this 
weekend...just giving areas near the south coast a glancing blow. 
However...a few of the Individual Ensemble members are further north 
particularly the latest EPS ensembles. Ptype would probably be main 
rain near the south coast...but the threat for snow/wintry mix would 
increase the further north the precipitation shield can make it. 
Plenty of uncertainty remains and we will likely need another day or 
two for a better idea on this setup.

Early Next Week...

The EPS/GEFS guidance supports above normal height fields in the 
east with a trough in the western states. This will feature above 
normal temperatures in southern New England...which has been a 
common theme much of this winter.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update...

Wednesday... High Confidence.

Precipitation moves out well before sunrise. MVFR/localized IFR
possible across the high terrain during the first half of the
morning before clouds scour out region wide. Mainly VFR outside
of the high terrain through the period. West/northwesterly 
winds around 10 knots.

Wednesday Night... High Confidence.

VFR with light northwesterly winds, less than 10 kt, calm across
portions of interior southern of New England.

Thursday... High Confidence in trends, moderate confidence in 
exact timing

VFR to start the day. Increasing clouds ahead of our next
rainmaker after 15-18Z from west to east. MVFR and light rain 
showers develop during the afternoon hours. Periods of IFR at
our western terminals possible before 00Z Friday, especially in
heavier bands of rain. Calm winds become southerly by Thursday
afternoon, increasing to about 15kt. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

VFR through the period. Mid level clouds scour out to clear
conditions by late morning. West/Northwest winds 10-15 knots
today diminishing overnight. 

KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

VFR through the period. Mid level clouds scour out to clear
conditions by late morning. West/Northwest winds 10-15 knots
today diminishing overnight.  

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... 

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA likely.

Friday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. 

Friday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. 

Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. 

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

09Z Update... 

Today...

West/northwest wind gusts 20 to 25 knots with seas greater than 5 
feet will continue to support SCY conditions across the outer
waters. Winds and residual swell will subside below small craft
thresholds across the inner waters by lunchtime today. 

Tonight...

High pressure builds over the coastal waters tomorrow night with 
lighter winds and subsiding seas. Conditions will fall below
small craft criteria across the outer waters overnight. 


Thursday... 
NW flow gradually shifts to the south and builds through the day
Thursday. Winds remain below small craft thresholds until late
Thursday afternoon when borderline Gales develop. Seas gradually
build to near 5 feet again. 

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... 

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. 

Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Areas of rough seas. 

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. 

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum Temps for Fri 2/10...

Boston		60/1990
Hartford	55/1909
Providence	58/1909
Worcester	55/1909

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&