Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 326 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 SYNOPSIS High pressure to our south will maintain a continued spell of sunny and dry weather into the middle of next week. A warming trend to temperatures begins today, with well above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early next week. Then a cold front moves through Southern New England around the middle of next week, bringing a welcomed rainfall. A pattern change toward cooler and blustery weather conditions more typical of mid- autumn then looks to develop for late next week. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 320 AM Update: Key Message: * Sunny and dry with a warming trend to temps, to go along with modest SW breezes. Highs in the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Details: Center of a strong 1032 mb high pressure area was analyzed over southern CT early this morning, leading to tranquil if cooler weather. Strong radiational cooling has taken place as expected, with current temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s. With an modest increase in the SWly pressure gradient/SW winds from north to south, it's likely that by sunrise the coolest readings end up over RI and southeast MA/Cape Cod. A stream of high clouds continues to advect in from the west, associated with an increasing warm advection pattern and warming temps aloft. The cooler autumn-like weather we saw yesterday in Southern New England will be undergoing a pattern change toward mild, warmer weather more typical of early September. The mostly sunny and dry theme which has been emblematic of the last several days will continue. With high pressure anchored to our south today, and as a subtle sfc trough passes to our northeast, it will allow for a modest southwesterly breeze around 10 mph by the late morning. This southwest wind will keep south-coastal New England slightly cooler than inland, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s. Further inland, increasing 925 mb temps to around +13C, full sun and continued dryness will favor highs reaching into the lower to mid 70s, about 10 degrees above average. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... 320 AM Update: Key Messages: * Clear and dry weather, but lows should be quite a bit warmer to the last few nights, in the mid 40s to mid 50s. * Warm and dry Sat, with highs reaching into the lower 80s. Details: Tonight: Remains high and dry tonight with good radiational cooling again. SW gradient weakens somewhat in the interior, but there should be just enough of a SW wind near the RI/eastern MA area to allow for milder low temps. Dewpoints/moisture levels tick up slightly so we could see patchy river valley fog develop in the western river valleys but it's likely still too dry elsewhere for fog development. Lows tonight should end up being about 10 degrees warmer, in the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Saturday: Likely to be the first of a few days with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to the mid 80s. This occurs as an anomalously strong upper level ridge begins to settle over Southern New England supplying strong subsidence and full sun. 925 mb temps to rise to the +15 to +17C range. Light west winds and continued dry weather; dewpoints in the 50s so not really humid, but you may perceive a slight uptick in humidity level when compared to the last several days. Otherwise, mild/warm weather with temps running about 15 degrees above average. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry weather continues Sun and Mon, with temps in the low 80s away from the coasts. * Still warm and dry for Tue, but southerly breezes could support possible fire weather concerns given the sustained stretch of dry weather. * Strong cold front moves in Wed bringing a welcomed rain; although rain amounts are still uncertain, a soaking rain isn't likely. * Mid-Autumn feel late next week, with below normal temperatures and blustery northerly breezes. Details: Sunday and Monday: Essentially a continuation of weather conditions from Sat, that being well above normal temperatures, clear skies and dry weather. Winds are a bit lighter and that could favor cooling seabreezes along the immediate coasts compared to Sat. But highs again top out well in the 70s to the lower to mid 80s on both days, with mild nighttime lows (mid 50s/near 60). Tuesday: Warm and dry weather continues into Tue, as we await a rather strong cold front which arrives either later Tue night or into Wed. What this will do is allow for a stronger SWly gradient flow to take hold, and we could see SWly breezes around 20-25 mph. RH's might be borderline/on the higher side, but given the dry soil moisture conditions having had several days to dry out and the SW breezes, Tue could be a day we'll need to watch for possible fire weather concerns. Highs 70s to low 80s, with increasing cloud cover by Tue evening supporting a potentially really mild Tue night (low-mid 60s lows). Wednesday: Generally overcast as a strong cold front looks poised to move through Southern New England at some point on Wed per global ensemble means, bringing a welcomed rain to Southern New England. PWAT values rise to as much as 1.5", so some anomalous moisture for the front to work with; but notable that ensemble probs are not necessarily that bullish on rain totals, with high chances (70-90%) of 24 hr rains of at least a tenth of an inch, but low (< 30%) probs of 24 hr rains of a half-inch or more. Temps in the lower 70s, but this could be subject to adjustment pending the timing of the front. Late Next Week: Global ensembles show good agreement on a significant pattern change toward blustery and cooler weather, with a tight northerly pressure gradient as a strong (1030+ mb) high pressure ridge builds in from Canada. 850 mb temps drop into the low single digits Celsius! Looks dry, but below normal temps appear favored, and some areas may struggle to reach 60 degrees Thu-Fri. .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z Friday: High confidence. VFR. Light/calm winds to become SW around 5 kt toward daybreak. Today through Saturday: High confidence. VFR through this period. SW winds today will be on the increase through late this morning to around 10 kt. There is a window of opportunity for a sea-breeze at BOS before the SWlys pick up late this morning, but if it were to develop it would be short- lived as the SW gradient increases. SW winds continue around 5-10 kt tonight, then become light W on Sat. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. A low chance at a seabreeze between ~14-15z, but SWlys should prevail for the majority if not all day. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tranquil boating weather expected through Saturday with winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria. SW winds will be strongest today at around 10-15 kt, though near 20 kt nearshore. Lighter WSW winds expected for Sat. Seas mainly 4ft or less on all waters. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Winds less than 25 kt. .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. SYNOPSIS...Loconto NEAR TERM...Loconto SHORT TERM...Loconto LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto MARINE...Loconto
Forecast And Data Provided By NOAA-NWS Boston / Norton, MA